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March Madness 2023 Final Four Same Game Parlay


Final Four Same Game Parlay

The Final Four is here and bettors who have been burned in the tournament by teams like Arizona, and frankly all of the No. 1 seeds, are looking to have a big weekend. Two Final Four games tip off on Saturday to determine who will advance to the NCAA Championship game on Monday. Same-game parlays have been a popular betting trend where bettors can create a game script and play multiple bets in a parlay for any individual game. Let’s look at some opportunities to do that with these games on Saturday.

San Diego St. vs Florida Atlantic +2.5 O/U 131.5

Two unexpected teams have made a run to the Final Four with the five seed San Diego St. pulling off some big wins to get there and more impressively Florida Atlantic as a nine seed managing to pull off upset after upset to get to this point. Does Florida Atlatnic have one more upset in them to get to the Finals? Every single game of the tournament they have been the underdog but have obviously come out on top.

Taking the moneyline on Florida Atlantic would boost the odds in this same-game parlay. The moneyline is set at +115 for Florida Atlantic in this scenario. The spread opened up at -1 in favor of San Diego St. and then has trickled all the way down to -2.5. So based on the original line we are getting some added value now by taking Florida Atlantic on either the moneyline or spread. Taking San Diego St. on the moneyline only pays -160.

For the second leg of the bet, look at the over/under on points. At 131.5 this is a low total where FAU only has an implied-points total of 64.5 points. If you're betting on FAU to win on the moneyline in the first leg, then it could make sense to take the under here, even at this low projected-points total. FAU has had some low scoring games, like when they beat Tennessee 62-55 or against Memphis when they won 66-65. San Diego St. won’t put up a ton of points consistently either as they scored just 57 in their Elite 8 win and 63 in the first round.

A positive value addition to this same-game parlay would be taking FAU to score over 65.5 points at +100. Playing this along with the FAU moneyline and the under on total points would mean that San Diego St. would also have to score 65 or less. It would net a +300 same-game parlay.

Miami vs UConn -5.5 O/U 149

It’s a higher total and a larger spread in the second Final Four game of the night. UConn is a large favorite to win this game but Miami has been crushing some of the top teams in the tournament just like the Huskies have been. Impressively, Miami beat No. 1 Houston by 15 and then beat Texas, who some people thought should have been a No. 1, by seven. Taking the moneyline on Miami is risky but would result in a nice payout for a same-game parlay. The Miami moneyline pays out +205 or them covering the spread is set at -110.

For the second leg of this same-game parlay we can look at the over/under points total. It is set extremely high but both of these teams have been scoring at a high rate in this tournament. Miami has scored 85 or more in their past three games and UConn has scored 82 or more three times this tournament. Playing the spread on Miami could mean we have a close and high-scoring game where Miami may score 78 but Uconn would only have to get 82 for them both to cover. Playing the moneyline on Miami for the first leg, it would just have to be a close game such as a score of 81 to 79 in favor of the Hurricanes. Neither of those finals scores seem out of reach, so the over seems like a good play here if you believe in a close game more than the 5.5 point spread.

For the final leg of this same-game parlay we have to look at the points total for a specific team. Taking a first to 10 bet is risky but the payouts are greater. This seems like a good spot to do so to add to this parlay bet. Taking Miami as the team to hit 10 points or more first would payout +115. This gets the total payout of this bet up to over a 10x if you're taking the moneyline on Miami plus the over and Miami as the first team to score 10 points.