We’re getting a low line here, since the Colts have the #1 rush defense through 3 Weeks (as measured by FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric) after finishing #3 last year and #8 two years ago. The Titans are also 3.5 point underdogs, which doesn’t always bode well for rushing props.
Here’s why I don’t care and am buying the dip
- Titans are strong Against-The-Spread (ATS) as an Underdog in the Ryan Tannehill era, covering at a 58% clip. This supports the idea they can keep it close.
- In their last 5 vs. Colts: Tennessee is 4-1 straight up (SU) and 2-0 as a Dog in visits to Indy.
- The Colts run defense was elite in each of the last 3 seasons. Titans didn’t care. They still went with a run-heavy game plan, giving Henry 26+ carries in 4 of the last 5 matchups. Leading in most of those games helped, but even in the game they lost: he took 19 carries for 103 yards.
Point being: history suggests to expect 20+ carries from Henry in this matchup regardless of game script. And if we’re right, then he should clear this 72+ number purely on volume even if he struggles from a yards per carry perspective.
I’d bet this prop up to 74.5 and if you can’t get that line, I suggest pivoting to over 19.5 Rush Attempts, which cashed in 10 of his last 11 games.
For what it’s worth: Pro Football Focus (PFF) projections have Henry at 82.6 rush yards on Sunday, and Sportsline computer model expects 88.0.