$FML's NFL Week 4 Best Bet

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

We’re getting a low line here, since the Colts have the #1 rush defense through 3 Weeks (as measured by FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric) after finishing #3 last year and #8 two years ago. The Titans are also 3.5 point underdogs, which doesn’t always bode well for rushing props.

Here’s why I don’t care and am buying the dip

  • Titans are strong Against-The-Spread (ATS) as an Underdog in the Ryan Tannehill era, covering at a 58% clip. This supports the idea they can keep it close.
  • In their last 5 vs. Colts: Tennessee is 4-1 straight up (SU) and 2-0 as a Dog in visits to Indy.
  • The Colts run defense was elite in each of the last 3 seasons. Titans didn’t care. They still went with a run-heavy game plan, giving Henry 26+ carries in 4 of the last 5 matchups. Leading in most of those games helped, but even in the game they lost: he took 19 carries for 103 yards.

Point being: history suggests to expect 20+ carries from Henry in this matchup regardless of game script. And if we’re right, then he should clear this 72+ number purely on volume even if he struggles from a yards per carry perspective.

I’d bet this prop up to 74.5 and if you can’t get that line, I suggest pivoting to over 19.5 Rush Attempts, which cashed in 10 of his last 11 games.

For what it’s worth: Pro Football Focus (PFF) projections have Henry at 82.6 rush yards on Sunday, and Sportsline computer model expects 88.0.

$FML Best Bet

betmgm

DERRICK HENRY OVER 71.5 RUSHING YARDS @ -115

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Broncos

DEN

-110

+8.5

Ravens

BAL

-110

-8.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Browns

CLE

-110

-7

Texans

HOU

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Commanders

WAS

-110

-2.5

Giants

NYG

-110

+2.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jaguars

JAX

-115

+1

Lions

DET

-105

-1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jets

NYJ

-110

+3

Vikings

MIN

-110

-3

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Packers

GB

-110

-3.5

Bears

CHI

-110

+3.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Steelers

PIT

-110

-1

Falcons

ATL

-110

+1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Titans

TEN

-110

+4.5

Eagles

PHI

-110

-4.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Dolphins

MIA

-110

+4

49ers

SF

-110

-4

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM
Seahawks

SEA

-110

-7

Rams

LAR

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM

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