@FastMoneyLabs’ +330 Parlay of the Week - 4/15

Going forward, I’ll be crafting a Parlay of the Week for FlashPicks on #FastMoneyFridays. The hashtag is a gimmick, not a guarantee of results, but a man can dream, right?

Now let’s kick the new weekly routine off with a winner, shall we?

I asked which Sportsbook we should target tonight, and I heard you loud and clear. Not sure what y’all got against FanDuel, but the message was sent:

Sadly, one of the props I’m targeting tonight (Leg 2) isn’t posted on FanDuel yet, so I had to do it at Caesars. Next week we’ll target FanDuel to make up for it!

Now let’s get down to business. Here’s my Parlay of the Week: a cross-sport, 3-leg lay you can bet for +330 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Leg 1: Sam Bennett (FLA) o2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) vs. WPG

As Florida’s 2nd line Center, Bennett gets the benefit of playing next to Jonathan Huberdeau (77 assists this season, most in NHL) and Claude Giroux (619 career assists, 86th most in NHL history) — two of the game’s most skilled playmakers.

It hasn’t been translating in the form of goal scoring for Bennett, at least lately, but when this trio is on the ice, Florida controls puck possession more often than not — which is the key to cashing shots on goal props. Because how else could you get shots if you don’t have the puck?

Bennett’s o/u 2.5 Shots on Goal (SOG) prop is 40-23 (63%) to the Over on the year and 26-6 (81%) at home, where they play tonight.

Tonight’s opponent, the Winnipeg Jets (WPG), are a nice target for SOG props, especially in their road games. In their last 10 away, they’re allowing 33.98 SOG per 60 minutes (9th most in NHL).

When these teams faced off earlier in the year, Bennett finished with 4 SOG, and it was an away game for him. Now back home where he’s known to shoot more, and you’re telling me we only need 3 tonight?! Say less. I’m riding with Bennett for Leg 1.

Leg 2: Jordan Montgomery (NYY) o4.5 Strikeouts (-160) vs. BAL

He was on track for 5+ Ks vs. Boston last week but finished just short after being pulled in the 4th inning.

Tonight, I expect him to get a little more leash and go deeper into the game, creating value on his strikeout prop at this number. A good time to buy the dip.

The matchup vs. Baltimore couldn’t get juicier, as they’re leading the league with a 30.5% strikeout rate through 6 games — a small sample but still a revealing stat! 4 of the 6 Starting Pitchers to face Baltimore this year got 5+ strikeouts.

In 97 career Plate Appearances vs. this Orioles roster, Montgomery has a 28.9% K Rate. That’s good, but I especially like how the strikeouts have been balanced across the lineup (i.e., not limited to a single player or two).

In his last start at Camden Yards (September 16th, 2021), Montgomery recorded a career high 12 strikeouts. And you’re telling me we only need 5 tonight?! 

I trust Monty to get it done for us as Leg 2.

Leg 3: Matt Olson (ATL) o0.5 Hits (-170)

After spending his first 6 seasons in Oakland, Olson is off to a nice start in Atlanta, hitting 0.407 with a 0.630 Slugging Percentage through 8 games — both Top 15% in MLB.

Tonight, he gets what I view as a nice matchup vs. San Diego prospect MacKenzie Gore, a Left-Handed Pitcher (LHP) making his MLB debut. Gore did well in Spring Training, but it’s reasonable to expect some butterflies in his Major League Debut, right?

Olson’s career splits show he’s a nice target against LHPs, especially for Power Hitting. If you’re feeling risky, I like him to get 2+ Total Bases tonight based on that information. Unfortunately, Caesars isn’t offering that line today, which led me to settle on the hit prop.

His teammate Ozzie Albies (who hits before him in the lineup) is also an excellent target vs. LHPs. For juicier odds, you could consider using Albies o1.5 Total Bases as the 3rd leg, but I prefer the safety of Olson to get a hit for Leg 3!

$FML's Friday Parlay

caesars

BENNETT O2.5 SOG, MONTGOMERY O4.5 STRIKEOUTS & OLSON O0.5 HITS @ +330

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