$FML's (+710) Friday Night MLB Parlay - 4/14

13 straight W’s?! The 1884 St. Louis Maroons started 14-0. No team’s achieved 14 straight to start a season since... Until tonight. Hopefully! Odds feel trappy; here’s why I took the bait.

Distinct pitching advantage

Drew Rasmussen vs. Jose Berrios?! Give me the former… Every damn time!

I value consistency, and Rasmussen’s on the Mount Rushmore of that department. 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 of 30 (77%) starts since 2021? Absolute WAGON.

Berrios meanwhile surrendered 12 earned runs in just 9.2 innings pitched THIS SEASON. That was against weaker competition (Royals and Angels). Enter the #1 offense in the game, and I smell trouble!

Why is the ML price this low? I see 3 reasons:

• It’s true: Jays defeated Rasmussen in 3 straight H2H meetings. Also true: 2 of the 3 defeats weren’t Rasmussen’s fault (allowed 1 earned run in 6+ IP each time)
• There are signs Berrios might be due for better results soon. He’s allowing 0.467 batting average on balls in play (unusually high) and stranding just 24% of baserunners (unusually low). His 11.17 actual ERA compares to 5.98 expected ERA (still high but directionally better). And his 3.19 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) through 2 starts is borderline excellent.
• Law of Averages. Winning 13 straight baseball games is hard. 14 straight?! Historically near impossible.

Tampa will absolutely lose a game at some point. I just don’t see it happening tonight with Rasmussen on the bump! Jays offense has depended waaaay too much on Matt Chapman so far, and he missed last night’s game with an illness. If he’s out again tonight, I’ll love this bet even more.

vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Padres’ shiny new bat sealed our Friday Night Parlay two weeks ago, and sportsbooks are still sleeping on it! Very surprised by these odds at MGM. Similar at Draftkings.

He consistently MASHES vs. Lefties in his career yet is just 3-for-20 so far this year vs. LHP. I’m quite confident he didn’t forget how to hit vs. southpaws and should be due for a correction on that front.

He’s also been hitting leadoff vs. LHP all season! Yet somehow these odds are still priced as if he’s still batting 4th. The leadoff spot boosts his chances to record hits for two simple reasons: (1) he’s more likely to get 5+ plate appearances, and (2) less likely to walk with power threats (Juan Soto & Manny Machado) looming on deck.

It won’t cash every time, but this prop’s 13-1 (93%) on the season despite underperforming vs. Lefties so far. Imagine the possibilities when he improves?

According to BallParkPal.com “Matchup Machine,” Eric Lauer sizes up as a Top 22% matchup for Bogaerts; whereas Bogaerts projects in the Bottom 3% for Lauer. Say less comrade, I’ll take the hitter!

vs. Chicago White Sox

Here’s the secret sauce to boost our potential payout! It’s a little risky but worth a shot for reasons outlined here.

Bigger bags + restrictions on pickoffs = more stolen bases! And Mateo leads the majors in that category so far. He’s a perfect 7-for-7 swiping bags thanks to blazing speed. His sprint speed clocks at 29.8 feet per second — tied for 4th fastest in the entire league.

Baltimore’s attempting the 2nd most stolen bases per game, and when Mateo gets on base… he has the green light! Meanwhile Chicago pitcher Mike Clevinger is one of the best targets for stolen bases. He’s already allowed 4 in just 2 games. Both White Sox catchers have below average pop times on stolen base attempts, too. These two things combine to explain the odds being below +200 here.

The most notable risks involve scenarios where he either (1) doesn’t get on base or (2) faces traffic in front (i.e. baserunner ahead of him). He’s been getting on base 35% of the time though (career high) and is swinging a hot bat (by Mateo standards). I’ve been quietly scouting this on the side and absolutely LOVED what I saw from Mateo last series vs. Oakland! Think he’s ready for the big stage (our parlay)

I placed & recommend 3 different bets!
Best odds at MGM at time of writing

• Risk 0.50 units: Rays ML x Bogaerts Hit (+174)
• Risk 0.50 units: Mateo Stolen Base (+195)
• Risk 0.25 units: Parlay All 3 (+710)

Max Loss: -1.25 units | Max Win: +3.63 units