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$FML's MLB Wednesday SGP - 4/19

$FML is back with a small afternoon MLB SGP as the Phillies head to Chicago to take on the White Sox!

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$FML’s Phillies/White Sox SGP

The Phillies only recorded 1 hit last night. Smells like a ticking time bomb to me.

White Sox starter Mike Clevinger has an attractive 2.20 ERA through 3 starts; however, peripheral numbers indicate regression might be imminent:

  • The 2.20 actual ERA compares to 5.96 expected ERA based on quality of contact being allowed
  • He’s coming off a 1 hit performance in 6 innings pitched but allowed 5 walks
  • Walks haven’t impacted his ERA yet, but they will soon. He’s currently stranding 83% of baserunners allowed, an unsustainable number
  • When pitchers walk 5 batters in their previous start, they want to avoid free passes in their next. Which leads me to see opportunity in the hits allowed market
  • Clevinger ranked in the Top-40 of pitchers who benefited from defensive shifts in years past; now they’re banned, but the impact hasn’t bled into his numbers yet
  • His 0.267 batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP) is below career average at a time when (1) BABIP is up league-wide, and (2) he’s scheduled to face Philly, who rank #1 in BABIP vs. RHP in the new rules era

The SGP

All these things indicate Clevinger is under-performing his headline metrics so far. The fact he’s with a new team and pitching coach might partially explain improved performance. However, certain stats like LOB rate aren’t immune to regression even with changed scenery! I’m betting accordingly with a little SGP.

Note: if you can’t bet this SGP, an alternate angle I fancy is Bryson Stott x Alex Bohm each to record hits (-103 FD)!

Official Play: Clevinger 5+ Hits Allowed & Phillies to Score 3+ Runs (-125) via DK

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