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$FML's Opening Day MLB Best Bet - 3/30

Atlanta Braves

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (1:05PM ET)

It’s not very bold but here’s my take… When Patrick Corbin pitches, I’m taking the other side! 99 times out of 100. Especially in April vs. the Braves. Here’s why:

March/April performance, last 2 seasons

  • 36 innings pitched (9 starts)
  • 38 earned runs (9.50 ERA)
  • 74 walks + hits allowed (2.06 WHIP)

Last 2 seasons vs. Atlanta

  • 30.1 innings pitched (7 starts)
  • 30 earned runs (8.90 ERA)
  • 57 walks + hits allowed (1.88 WHIP)

2023 pre-season projections, FanGraphs

  • 4.46 ERA (bottom 35% of MLB)
  • 1.70 Wins Above Replacement (tied 6th lowest of the 30 opening day starters)

$FML Best Bet

Preferred Angle / Best Bet: Atlanta Braves to Win First 5 Innings x Full Game Parlay (-115)

It’s -115 at Draftkings as of Wednesday night, and I’d take this bet down to -130! It’s chalky —I know— but worth the price to me given Corbin’s past (April splits + Braves history) and the projections I referenced.

I didn’t devote much real estate to Atlanta in this column, but I’m high on them this season (regardless of the matchup vs. Corbin). The NL East was a 3-headed BEAST last year, and the Braves reigned supreme (as NL East champs). They grinded out a 101 win season that was ultimately spoiled by an early playoff exit though. Expectations going forward are high, I think they’re up for the task, and it starts now! Bonus: this is a day game.

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