@RyanPropz NBA Best Bet - 1/31

Ryan Propz | @ryanpropz

Portland Trail Blazers (21-29) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (14-34)

For today’s prop, I will be looking towards the Blazers PG in a matchup of two bottom feeder teams with really really bad defenses. No, not Dame Lillard….Anfernee Simons. Anfernee has filled in beautifully for the injured Lillard. Simons is averaging 27.9 Points + Assists in 17 starts at PG, and today we were gifted a line of 25.5. I will be taking the over on that line, and as always will provide a laundry list of reasons why!

Make sure you check out Ryan's full cheat sheet for this game at the bottom of the article!

Pick Analysis

I will begin talking about the points aspect of this prop. Technically, the Thunder are solid at defending PGs. With that said they are atrocious at defending the arc, and that happens to be where Anfernee does most of his work. OKC allows the fourth most 3 pointers made in the league. Anfernee has been on fire lately hitting 4.2 3 pointers on 10.0 attempts over the last 10 games. He is averaging 22.2 points over this 10 game span, so he is getting close to this line off points alone, but this is not even the best part of this prop….

Let us talk assists. Anfernee has done a great job growing this aspect of his game this season. He is averaging 6.4 assists in games without Dame, and that number has grown to 7.1 over the last 10 games. He has averaged 14.0 potential assists a game over that span, a beautiful number in a matchup like this. PG’s have been shredding OKC’s defense all season. They allow the most assists per game to PG, and have allowed an incredible 12.67 per game over the last 7 days. 

The Thunder’s largest weaknesses defensively just so happen to be where Anfernee is strongest, so I love him to go over this number.

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