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@RyanPropz' NBA Prop Picks - 10/25


My goodness I am about to bet on Kyle Kuzma. Those are words I slightly cringe at, but hey. You gotta do what you gotta do. 

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Detroit Pistons (1-2) @ Washington Wizards (2-1) // 7pm ET

Alright, let's talk about Kuzma.

He enjoyed his first season in a Wizards uniform, setting a career high in rebounds and his second best scoring season of his career. He is off to a strong start to this season as well averaging 19.7 points through 3 games. Last game was his worst of the season, understandably so as he matched up against the great defense of Evan Mobley. Prior to that he took advantage of some better matchups, dropping 26 on the Bulls and 22 against the Pacers. I think there are plenty of things to like about tonight’s matchup. 

First I will discuss his front court mate in Porzingis. While Porz is a fairly high volume player, he seemed to open up things for Kuzma a little more. In the 9 games they played together dating back to last season, Kyle witnessed an increase in FG attempts, 3 pt attempts, free throw attempts, and points. Worth noting all increases were rather small, but good to know his role did not change upon Kristaps arrival. 

As far as the matchup, that is what sold me the most. In games spanning from last season’s trade deadline till now, Detroit has allowed the 3rd most points to Power Forwards. They have had their hands full with the 4 spot early this season:

  • Banchero 27 points
  • Randle 15 points in 25 min, Toppin 16 points in 21 minutes (Blowout)
  • Jalen Smith 19 points

I am not the biggest Kuzma fan by any means, but I love him in this spot.

  • Kyle Kuzma over 17.5 points -115 on Fanduel (1 unit)
  • Kuzma 25+ points +410 on Fanduel (.25 units) 
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