Oklahoma City is always a threat to get blown out, so I tread lightly in their games but sometimes rebound props in blowouts can still be a solid spot. In order for a blowout to occur, missed shots must occur on one end, and few are better at cleaning up misses than Rudy Gobert.
Rudy Gobert leads the league in rebounds and gets a great opportunity to increase his lead today. He is first by a significant margin in rebound chances per game (4.1 more than second place). Rudy has 14 or more rebounds in 65% of his games this season. He has also hit in 6 of his last 10 games despite being reworked into the rotation after an injury in that stretch. In two prior matchups vs OKC, Gobert grabbed 21 and 17 rebounds.
Like I mentioned earlier you must be aware of blowout potential in Thunder games, but Rudy’s rebounds have been blowout proof this year. In 23 wins by 10 or more points, Rudy has hit this prop in 17 of them, good for a 74% hit rate. The Thunder are dead last in rebounds allowed, and of course a big part of that is a league worst 42.2% field goal percentage.
If by chance OKC stays close, it could easily be a 20 rebound game for Rudy, but even if the blowout fears come true, I love this spot for him to continue his dominance on the glass.