What’s up FlashPicks gang!? I am going to do a new article segment where I talk about my underdog of the week throughout the NFL Season. Every week I will pick my favorite underdog to win outright. These may not be official plays, but they should be fun and at the very least help you not fall for some trap games on the favorites.
Let’s dive in some of the potential spots for us in Week 1...
The Falcons are very intriguing with Mariota at QB as home dogs vs. a Saints team that is probably a little overrated with the love it's getting from the public. Jameis Winston makes a lot of mistakes and although they can beat anyone, they can also put themselves in bad positions and lose to bad teams.
The Steelers price holds a lot of value as well as the team who loses the previous Super Bowl is 4-18 ATS in week 1 since 2000. It is hard to back the Steelers to win outright, but I could see them covering the spread in this divisional game. If the game was in Pittsburgh, I might have pulled the trigger but I can’t trust them in Cincy.
The same thing goes for the Raiders as this game should be very close against the Chargers. Both of these teams have a great quarterback, great running back, and great weapons as wide receivers. This divisional game holds a lot of weight as well and I am really tempted to play the dog here, but at home I do think the Chargers hold off with a tight win.
This leaves us with the NFC North divisional matchup in Minnesota. The Packers travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings where the Vikings are barely home dogs. I am all over the Vikings to win the division at +240 with this new offensive scheme that they should implement. The Packers lost Davante Adams and don’t really have great weapons at WR. Allen Lazard is also now listed as doubtful, which makes this already thin WR core even more thin.
This line is moving more towards a pick 'em with the status of Lazard and for our first dog of the week I know +100 isn't a big dog, but it will have to do for week 1. Kirk Cousins has a career completion percentage of 66.9% which is good for the 3rd highest all time and he has been around the block to have a decent sample size. He may have his issues in primetime games, but this is a 4:25 PM in Minnesota where he should see a great home field atmosphere. Kirk Cousins is 19-12 with the Vikings at home in his career. I like the idea of a divisional home underdog in Week 1 with a lot of unknowns.
