Most pundits think that Tampa Bay will again top the NFC South division, as they bring back a team that went 10-7 last season, barely losing 23-20 in the wild card round to the Washington Commanders. They’ve now won their division four years in a row.
Atlanta has a promising young team that went 8-9 last season while breaking in rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. But the team disappointed many observers, who felt they had loaded up for a Super Bowl run by signing expensive free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins and were primed for bigger things.
Tampa Bay is led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who loves to sling the ball deep down the field. Mayfield is at -200 to get more than 225 yards. He exceeded that mark 11 times in 2024 while accumulating 4,500 yards overall.
A key to Mayfield’s yardage will be the return of all-pro wideout Chris Godwin, who was knocked out of action in Week 7 last year with a horrendous ankle and leg injury. He’s just off the Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP) and it’s uncertain when he will return and how much he’ll be able to do. Also off the PUP list is left tackle and four-time Pro Bowler Tristan Wirfs, who is recovering from a knee injury.
Fortunately for Tampa Bay, they have perennial 1,000-yard receiver Mike Evans on the team, and he’ll be aided by rookies Emeka Egbuka (+187 to score a TD) and Tez Johnson. Evans is -190 to get more than 60 yards in receptions, which he can easily grab.
Atlanta has running back Bijan Robinson as one of its offensive threats, and he may need to be used a lot if Penix struggles. He’s -290 to gain more than 60 yards, which seems like a solid bet.
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -2.5 (-110), Atlanta +2.5 (-110)
Money Line: Tampa Bay -140, Atlanta +120
Game Total (Over/Under): Tampa Bay Over 47.5 (-110) Atlanta Under 47.5 (-110)
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