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$FML's +1025 Friday Night NHL Parlay - 3/17

Leg 1: Toronto / Carolina Under 6.5 (-140)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina Hurricanes

I can’t watch the games tonight unfortunately, but there’s a silver lining! It removes the psychological (and self-imposed) stress of betting an Under, and there’s a lot of support for this one!

Carolina Under

  • 9-5-1 since ASB
  • 31-23-2 after a day off
  • 26-18-2 vs. good offenses (3+ GPG)
  • 14-12-1 vs. strong teams (55%+ WP)
  • 14-9-1 when Freddy Andersen starts

Toronto Under

  • 7-6-2 since ASB
  • 19-12-2 at home with line >= 6
  • 26-16-4 vs. good offenses (3+ GPG)
  • 15-7 vs. strong teams (55%+ WP)
  • 18-13-2 when Ilya Samsonov starts

Injuries

  • Andrei Svechnikov (55 points, #2 on Carolina) was just placed on LTIR, which dampens their scoring outlook
  • Ryan O’Reilly (3 goals, 2 assists since being acquired by Toronto via trade last month) is currently on IR

Expected Goals Insights

  • Both teams scoring < 2.8 expected goals per game in their last 3 overall (calculated based on quality of scoring chances)
  • Both teams allowing < 2.6 expected goals in their last 10 home & road games

Market Signals

  • Game total opened o/u 6.5, 50% of tickets hit the Over, yet oddsmakers shaved half a goal off the total. This is usually a sign that sharp money prefers the Under!

Leg 2: Rasmus Sandin 1+ Assist (+128)

Washington Capitals vs. St. Louis Blues

  • Blues allow 5th most goals (3.65), and their starting goaltender was just suspended
  • Backup Thomas Greiss ranks #52 out of 68 (min. 15 starts) in goals saved above expected
  • Washington outshot St. Louis 51-24 in their first matchup this season
  • Capitals defensemen average 0.584 assists per team goal scored (3rd most)
  • 84 of these 125 assists were recorded by players who are no longer with the team (trades & injuries)
  • Sandin, recently acquired via trade to fill the gap, already has 8 assists in his first 6 games (5 primary assists, 3 secondary)
  • He’s averaging 25.6 minutes of ice time since the trade, +42% vs. pre-trade (averaged 18.0 with Toronto)
  • He’s been gifted the “quarterback” role on Washington’s first power play unit, which boosts his chances to record assists (playbook: pass the puck to Ovechkin!)

Leg 3: Owen Tippett 5+ Shots (+188)

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres

  • Buffalo defense allowing 6th most shots last 10 away games (35.2 per 60 minutes)
  • Tippett has 74 shot attempts in the last 10 Flyers games; next closest teammate has just 47 (Kevin Hayes)
  • His skyrocketing production coincides with Travis Konecny (3rd on the team in shots) being out with an upper body injury, and Hayes (tied for 1st in shots) being dropped into coach John Tortorella’s dog house
  • 56% of Tippett’s shot attempts this season were on target, but last game: he only had 3 SOG on 10 attempts (30% accuracy); this tells me he’s due for a more accurate shooting night!
  • If the attempts persist and accuracy improves, basic math suggests he’ll get at least 4+ shots on net vs. Buffalo tonight
  • And 4 of the last 5 times he went over 3.5 without Konecny in the lineup, he smashed 4.5 too, finishing with 6, 8, 4, 9, 8 (most recent)
  • Further supporting this pick: when Tippett attempts 7+ shots this season, he records:
    • 4+ SOG at a 63% rate
    • 5+ SOG at a 50% rate
  • That’s a slim difference. Tells me 5+ shots @ +188 (34.7% implied probability) is much better value than 4+ shots @ -115 (53.5% implied probability)

The Slip:

I got +1025 for the 3-leg parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.25 units to win 2.56!

I also placed and recommend straight bets on each leg (risk 0.5u/each)… ya know, just in case!

Max Win: +4.5 units | Max Loss: -1.75 units

Friendly reminder parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy! Please bet responsibly if tailing (or fading) these picks! Cheers & good luck

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