We have a plus money play from FastMoneyLabs on Thursday night and it's a beauty!
$FML's NHL Best Bet for Thursday Night - 3/16
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils
I’m warming up to Unders but see better value on the Over at this line and price! I put a full unit on it @ +125 and would play down to +100. Here’s why:
Every bet is a risk/reward trade off, and in that simple context: this prop feels mispriced! It’s 13-7 (65%) in his last 20 games and 10-5 (67%) in his last 15 on the road (excluding one where he got hurt). 65% hit rates normally correspond to -186 fair odds, so at +125, we’re getting a 20% discount! Which begs the question… why?
It’s not the best matchup on paper but far from the worst, and defensemen are finding success vs. New Jersey lately – Hedman being the latest example. He recorded a team-leading 5 shots on goal this past Tuesday in New Jersey, and tonight’s a rematch. 14 of Tampa’s 30 (47%) shots that night were recorded by Defensemen like Hedman, which is becoming a trend vs. New Jersey…
Percentage of Shots Allowed by New Jersey to Defensemen
- Pre-All Star Break: 28.7%
- Post-All Star Break: 33.4% (most in NHL)
The +4.7% difference feels small, but it’s meaningful. Only one team (Philly, +4.9%) shifted more during that stretch. I can’t say definitively what’s driving the change, but it’s backed by an 18-game sample since All Star Weekend.
Technical indicators also support this pick on Hedman…
- In the last 3 seasons, his average shot attempts hovers around 5.5 per game
- When the 5-game average drops to 4.2, it tends to rise (see chart)
- It recently hit that 4.2 support line and rose to 4.8 on Tuesday, but there’s still room to run
In Layman’s Terms: To maintain his long-term average at 5.5, he probably needs to attempt at least 6 shots tonight! And when he attempts 6+ shots, he clears the 2.5 SOG line at a 72% rate.
For what it’s worth: Betting Hedman to clear this 2.5 line vs. NJD is 6-1 in their last 7 meetings, including 4 games with 4+ SOG. Tonight, we only need 3+!
I’m ice cold with bets, but the reads are warming up, and I’m willing put hard earned cash behind this one! I risked a full unit @ +125 and would play down to +100! (or fade, up to you!)