$FML's NHL Tuesday Best Bet - 3/7

The NHL’s 2nd best team is scoring 3.9 goals, on average, in its last 10 road games (2nd most). Tonight they pay visit to Montreal, a team Carolina’s outscored 18-3 in aggregate since last season. These two facts sent me hunting for a Hurricanes scoring prop, and looking at pricing: I see the best value in Kotkaniemi to record a point, which would cash with a goal or assist.

He was drafted #3 overall by Montreal (tonight’s opponent) in 2018, and betting him to record a point is a perfect 3-0 vs. his former team. He’s coming off his best career NHL game on Sunday (1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points) and is averaging a point per game in his last 14.

The recent bump in production corresponds with getting an increased role in Carolina’s Top 6. He also Centers the Canes’ 2nd Power Play unit, which exploded for 4 PPG on Sunday. Carolina splits Power Play time evenly between its 1st and 2nd units, which makes Kotkaniemi a strong candidate to contribute again vs. Montreal, who take the 7th most penalties and allow the 6th most PPG.

I don’t expect another multi-point performance from the 22-year-old, but is one too much to ask? Feels reasonable, and the plus money price is too good to pass up for me. This prop is cashing  50% in his last 30 games, which implies fair odds closer to +100 (ignoring matchup), and this is a favorable opponent. Kotkaniemi’s peer Seth Jarvis is -110 to record a point, and they play similar roles. Why is the former +104? I honestly don’t know. It feels like a trap, but I’ll gladly take the bait vs. his former team.

I risked a full unit at +104 (FanDuel) and would play this prop down to -110!