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@TonesTakes NHL Playoff Bet of the Day - 5/13

TonesTakes

Game/Team Prop Pick

The Calgary Flames look to close out their series with the Dallas Stars tonight in a Game 6 showdown, in Dallas. After falling down in the series 2 games to 1, the Flames have won the last 2 games by a combined score of 7-2. Calgary erased a 1-0 third period deficit in Game 5 as they picked up an eventual 3-1 win with Andrew Mangiapane netting the game winner, midway through the 3rd. Calgary has peppered Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger as they have averaged 32.4 shots per game, including totals of 41 and 54 in the two games in Dallas. Despite the multitude of goal scoring in the first round, this series has been a tight defensive struggle and that is just the way Flames coach Darryl Sutter likes it. Sutter has been molding this team all season long, getting them ready for playoff hockey.

The Flames have many similarities to Sutter's cup winning LA Kings teams, tight defensive structure, great goaltending and opportunistic goal scoring. While this series has been tight, the Flames have owned the ice in 5 on 5 play. Calgary has generated 49 high danger scoring chances compared to 36 for the Stars. Calgary has also only allowed 36 high danger chances against, compared to 49 for Dallas. I like the Flames to end this grueling series tonight, on the road in Dallas and I will add the under 6.5 in this combo bet, to maximize value. The Under is 4-1 in this series, with the only over coming on a last second empty net goal. Being that this is an elimination game, I feel more comfortable with a 6.5 instead of a 5.5.

Tone's Pick

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Calgary Flames Win/Under 6.5 @ +135
$200 BONUS

Player Prop Pick

Markstrom has hit this mark in both games in Dallas in this series, with totals of 28 and 34. I expect Dallas to push early in this game as they have their backs against the wall. The Flames tend to give up more shots on the road than they do at home. During the regular season, the Flames allowed 31.3 shots per game on the road, compared to a 26.6 shots against per game at home, which was a league low. Markstrom hit this mark in 67% of road games this season, including the playoffs. I am expecting a big game from Jacob tonight and love this relatively low number. 

Tone's Pick

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Jacob Markstrom Over 25.5 Saves @ -110
$200 BONUS
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