With a place in the knock-out on the line it’ll be the United States facing off with Iran on Matchday 3 in Group B. The US have collected 2 points so far, but only a win guarantees them a spot in the next phase of the World Cup. I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay, to spice things up a bit.
The bet comes out at +462 odds, without wasting any more time let’s jump into it!
WC 2022 - Group Stage - Group B| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  England | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 7 |
| 2 | |  United States | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | |  Iran | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | |  Wales | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
The Iranians don’t really like to hold possession all that much – against England they finished with just 21% of possession, while in the 2nd game against Wales that number went up only to 38%. So it should be the US controlling the tempo here, that should bode well for the creativity in the US midfield which is one of the advantages they have over their opponent in this game. Iran isn’t equipped with such strong individuals, and that was evident in both games so far they’ve played. There’s also a bit of history between these two teams, with Iran beating USA at the 1998 World Cup, although that match took place more than 20 years ago, it’s never to late to get revenge in soccer! The US team has a record of 5-4-3 so far this year, they’ve outscored opponents 18-8 during that stretch, I think it’s time we finally see them play up to their potential and secure a knockout phase spot with a victory against Iran.
The US team has gone under 2.5 goals in both games played so far with a 1-1 draw vs Wales and a goalless draw against England. Not only that, they also have one of the lowest xG stats in the entire tournament so far generating just 1.42 expected goals in those two games played. Iran has also struggled in front of the goal with a 0.087 xG per shot tally, but unlike the Americans they were able to make the most out of their chances against Wales. Prior to the 2022 World Cup, the Iranians had 3 goals total at the 2014 and 2018 World Cups combined, plus they had scored 2 goals in a game only once in 9 outings in 2022 before scoring 4 goals vs England and Wales.
With their World Cup lives at stake here, I expect both managers to play more conservative here as nobody will want to risk this game getting out of hand. I was impressed with the US defense in the first two games, they held both England and Wales without a goal from open play. They have allowed more than 1 goal once in their past 9 matches, with 6 clean sheets in 14 qualifying matches. This game will not see more than 2 goals scored.
Christian Pulisic already has one assist to his name, he has by far made the best impression of the entire USMNT at this World Cup. He was at the center of attention in the England game and was close to scoring his 22nd international goal, but unfortunately the ball landed on the crossbar instead. In a be or not to be match I expect him to be at the top of his game. He’s no stranger to showing up in big moments, at least at the club level where he’s scored and assisted for Chelsea in the Champions League semi finals against Real Madrid in 2020-21. He’s not scored a goal in 7 games for the US, or a total of 585 minutes, this would be the perfect moment for him to do so. I think he has at least one shot on goal in Tuesday’s game.
