He's covered this line in all 3 starts this season with 96, 91, and 79 pitches and I don't see anything changing vs the Cubs who are averaging 3.2 runs per game in their last 5. In the first 6 innings, they're averaging just 2.4 runs. Last season, Merrill was very dominant at home. He's now gone over this line in his last 11 of 12 home games and the Cubs are only batting .197 vs him.
Give me the over on a guy that seems to hit this at will at home vs a Cubs team that hasn't been scary and will be without Suzuki.