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Capper Penguin's MLB Pitcher Prop Pick: Blue Jays @ Marlins - 6/20


First of all, the Blue Jays have been struuuggling and there’s no way around it. They’ve only scored 2 runs or less in their last 4 of 5 games and if you only look at the first 6 innings they’ve only scored over 2 runs ONCE in their last 8 games. If you look at their last 11 away games they’ve only scored 2 or less runs (in first 6 innings) in 10 of them!

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins

Now they’re drawing a very good rookie at home tonight in Eury Perez who’s allowed 1 earned run TOTAL in his last 4 games and covered this line in 6 of his 7 starts (only L was at COL). Out of 7 runs allowed he’s given up 4 HR and we’re getting a nice -11% downtick for HR probability from the weather. 

Last but not least he’s only gone more than 5 innings once and he allowed 0 runs in 6 innings. All of the starts he’s only gone 5 or less and all the books have Toronto’s TT at o/u 1.5 runs. Meaning they’re not expecting an explosion here and we’re getting a nice run cushion for a guy who only goes 5 IP anyway. All books have him pretty juiced on the under 2.5 and I think it’s for good reason.

Let’s shut it down Eury!

Capper Penguin's Pick

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Eury Perez under 2.5 earned runs @ -140
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