@FastMoneyLabs’ +1081 Friday Night Parlay

We cashed +472 odds last week. Why not dial it up to +1081?

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Leg 1: Phillies ML (-152)

We trusted the disgraced (at the time) Phillies with Leg 1 of our Friday Night Parlay last week. They delivered in style. Why not do it again?

The team is a perfect 7-0 since firing manager Joe Girardi. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, scoring 6+ runs in 6 of those 7 games. Their 175 wRC+ vs. Right-Handed Pitching (RHP) in that period is 2nd best in MLB.

Tonight, they'll be tested against Arizona ace Zac Gallen. He’s a good pitcher by the numbers and I respect him, but his pitch arsenal is somewhat basic. He relies on a Fastball/Changeup/Curveball mix that the Phillies lineup should be able to attack and thrive against tonight.

Pitching for Philadelphia will be Kyle Gibson, who is coming off a bad start vs. the Angels. Besides that, he’s been fairly solid and consistent, allowing 2 or less earned runs in 7 of his 11 starts. I trust him to bounce back tonight vs. a weaker Diamondbacks lineup, and the market appears to agree (Phillies ML moved from -130 at the open to -150 at time of writing).

Leg 2: Orioles/Royals Over 9.5 (-105)

For Leg 2: we’ve been gifted with a Bruce Zimmerman (BAL) vs. Jonathan Heasley (KCR) matchup – the likes of which I dream about, since I like betting Overs.

In fact, Sportsbooks might be better off paying us not to bet the Over when these guys pitch. I’ve been patiently awaiting that call but have yet to receive it. We’re placing our bets accordingly.

Here’s a simple breakdown of their seasons so far (column 1) and what to expect (column 2):

stts

We knew they were bad. Then MLB Statcast said: “Hold my beer”… They’re even worse than you thought.

If you’re not familiar with the Expected ERA (xERA) metric, here’s a quick rundown. Like ERA, it measures earned runs allowed per 9 innings pitched. The difference – and reason I value xERA – is that it makes certain adjustments for factors outside of the pitcher’s control. For example, Weather impacts and Ballpark Dimensions.

xERA also factors in quality of bat-to-ball contact. For example: If a pitcher is getting barreled with hard hits, but those hits are going directly at fielders, it can suppress his ERA and make him look like a better pitcher than he really is. Eventually, those hard hits will find gaps, right? The xERA metric recognizes and accounts for things like this, whereas Standard ERA does not. Hence why I find it useful to compare both.

When xERA is exceeds standard ERA, it implies the pitcher has benefited from a degree of luck and could be due for negative regression (i.e. even worse performance in the future).

Of course, for the expected trends to pull through, we need the offenses to come through. That’s the risk, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take since:

  • Baltimore is on a scoring tear lately (Average 5.67 runs per game in their last 7)
  • Kansas City appears due for positive scoring regression at home (Average 4.46 per game on the road vs. just 3.13 at home, a strange disconnect even considering their pitcher friendly ballpark)

Baltimore is also 8-1-1 to the Over in their last 10 games, and Kansas City is 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 at home.

I feel these are all good reasons to back the Over as Leg 2 (I bought down half a run using the ‘Alt Lines’ feature to avoid a push scenario, but Over 9 works too).

Leg 3: Jose Berrios 7+ Ks (+265)

This leg is obviously a bit risky based on odds, but that’s why I love it. It’s good value for +265, which justifies adding to our parlay.

Berrios was literally the worst pitcher in MLB for a stretch this season. He’s still not good, but he’s trending up. That’s the key.

He’s coming off his best start of the year where he recorded a career-high 13 strikeouts and allowed just 3 hits in 7 innings. What impressed me most about this 13 K performance is how it came against a Twins lineup that’s sizzling vs. RHPs (131 wRC+ last 30 days, 3rd best in MLB).

Tonight, he gets a much easier matchup vs. Detroit, who rank dead last vs. RHPs the last 30 days, as measured by wRC+. They have the 3rd highest strikeout rate in that time period, and it’s been getting worse. In the last 14 days, their 26.2% K rate vs. RHPs is 2nd highest in MLB. And in the last 7 days, it rose to 34.7% -- absolutely abysmal.

The last time Berrios faced Detroit, he had 11 Ks, and the time before that he had 8. And you’re telling me we can bet 7+ tonight for +265 odds?! Say Less. I’m buying low on Berrios with confidence as Leg 3.

hnb
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