@FastMoneyLabs’ +135 Hits Parlay - 6/22

Nice spot to back the Marlins’ veteran slugger.

It’s been a down year for him (by Aguilar standards), but he’s done well at Loan Depot Park where they play tonight.

He’s collected 35 knocks in 111 ABs at home this year – good for a 0.315 batting average. That compares to just a 0.196 batting average on the road. He’s also a guy that’s known to kill the Rockies. His 0.363 lifetime batting average in 102 PAs vs. them is his 2nd best vs. any opponent he’s faced more than 3 times.

On the year, he’s hitting 0.271 vs. Right-Handed Pitching (RHP). Certainly not elite but still good considering league-wide batting averages are down this year. He also has a low walk rate, which is something I value when selecting hit props (since walks are the #1 hit prop killer). His decent batting average and low walk rate are enabling him to record a hit in 25% of his PAs vs. RHPs this year. Assuming he’ll get 4+ PAs tonight, the simple math checks out (4 PAs x 25% hit percentage vs. RHPs = 1 hit).

Tonight, he gets a soft matchup vs. Chad Kuhl, a RHP that relies on a sinker/slider combo that Aguilar thrives against. Kuhl’s allowed 7+ hits in 5 of his last 7 starts and 3 of his last 4 on the road. He’s also allowing a hit 25.2% of the time vs. Right-Handed Batters vs. just 21.3% against Lefties. That’s good to know since Aguilar’s a Righty.

String all those facts together and I feel we’ve found a nice spot to back Aguilar for Leg 1.

The former Colorado standout got off to a rocky start with his new club. I’m buying the dip. That’s because there are signs he’s starting to get more comfortable and is heating up.

Last night, he cranked a mammoth 3-run dinger that didn’t just clear the fence. . . It left the park.

Including that, he enters tonight on a nice 5-game hitting streak. Good for his confidence and betting outlook alike.

Also supporting a pick on Story is the idea that Boston’s expected to rest a couple of their starters tonight. If they do, it should mean an increased role for Trevor Story. He’s been hitting out of the 6 spot in the lineup this year, but tonight he’s projected to bat 2nd. If that projection proves correct – it would boost his chances to record a hit by way of potentially getting more At Bats. He should also see better pitches to hit out of that spot (assuming at least 1 Boston Slugger will stay in the lineup and bat 3rd).

Story’s 0.380 wOBA vs. LHPs in the last 2 seasons compares to just 0.310 vs. Lefties. However, this season both metrics are more in line, indicating some positive regression could be imminent for him vs. LHPs. If I’m right, then I like tonight’s matchup for him vs. Tarik Skubal, a LHP that relies on a Fastball/Slider combo that Story thrives against.

I got +135 odds for the parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and sized my bet to win a unit (risk 0.74).