Nice spot to back the Marlins’ veteran slugger.
It’s been a down year for him (by Aguilar standards), but he’s done well at Loan Depot Park where they play tonight.
He’s collected 35 knocks in 111 ABs at home this year – good for a 0.315 batting average. That compares to just a 0.196 batting average on the road. He’s also a guy that’s known to kill the Rockies. His 0.363 lifetime batting average in 102 PAs vs. them is his 2nd best vs. any opponent he’s faced more than 3 times.
On the year, he’s hitting 0.271 vs. Right-Handed Pitching (RHP). Certainly not elite but still good considering league-wide batting averages are down this year. He also has a low walk rate, which is something I value when selecting hit props (since walks are the #1 hit prop killer). His decent batting average and low walk rate are enabling him to record a hit in 25% of his PAs vs. RHPs this year. Assuming he’ll get 4+ PAs tonight, the simple math checks out (4 PAs x 25% hit percentage vs. RHPs = 1 hit).
Tonight, he gets a soft matchup vs. Chad Kuhl, a RHP that relies on a sinker/slider combo that Aguilar thrives against. Kuhl’s allowed 7+ hits in 5 of his last 7 starts and 3 of his last 4 on the road. He’s also allowing a hit 25.2% of the time vs. Right-Handed Batters vs. just 21.3% against Lefties. That’s good to know since Aguilar’s a Righty.
String all those facts together and I feel we’ve found a nice spot to back Aguilar for Leg 1.