The Seattle Mariners rank #1 in walk rate vs. Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) this year, and it’s not even close:
- Seattle at 11.2%
- Yankees at 9.8%
- Braves at 9.7%
- League Median is 8.4%
7 of their 9 projected starters tonight have above average walk rates vs. LHP. That’s a healthy degree of balanced discipline up and down the lineup. In other words, the Mariners don’t rely on 2-3 guys to draw all the walks. Nearly anyone in their lineup can make it happen.
Those facts have me excited for the possibilities tonight vs. Jose Suarez, a LHP that ranks in the bottom 24% of walk rate. Nearly 1 of every 10 batters he faces is getting a free pass. As a result, he’s averaging 1.9 walks per game with a median value of 2.0. Betting him to walk 2+ batters is 10-4 (71%) this season and 5-1 (83%) at home.
12 of the last 17 (71%) LHP to face Seattle walked 2+ Mariners. And you’re telling me we can bet on Suarez to join that club tonight at -115 odds? Take my money. In fact – I see so much value at this price that I recommend a 2 unit bet (i.e. double your normal bet size). Now to be clear – just because I’m confident does not guarantee it will hit. Anything can happen in sports, so bet responsibly guys!
The Pick: Jose Suarez over 1.5 Walks (-115) vs. Seattle Mariners (Odds via DraftKings)