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@FastMoneyLabs’ 2 Unit Best Bet - 8/16

Seattle Mariners (63-54) at Los Angeles Angels (51-65)

The Seattle Mariners rank #1 in walk rate vs. Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) this year, and it’s not even close:

  1. Seattle at 11.2%
  2. Yankees at 9.8%
  3. Braves at 9.7%
  4. League Median is 8.4%

7 of their 9 projected starters tonight have above average walk rates vs. LHP. That’s a healthy degree of balanced discipline up and down the lineup. In other words, the Mariners don’t rely on 2-3 guys to draw all the walks. Nearly anyone in their lineup can make it happen.

Those facts have me excited for the possibilities tonight vs. Jose Suarez, a LHP that ranks in the bottom 24% of walk rate. Nearly 1 of every 10 batters he faces is getting a free pass. As a result, he’s averaging 1.9 walks per game with a median value of 2.0. Betting him to walk 2+ batters is 10-4 (71%) this season and 5-1 (83%) at home.

12 of the last 17 (71%) LHP to face Seattle walked 2+ Mariners. And you’re telling me we can bet on Suarez to join that club tonight at -115 odds? Take my money. In fact – I see so much value at this price that I recommend a 2 unit bet (i.e. double your normal bet size). Now to be clear – just because I’m confident does not guarantee it will hit. Anything can happen in sports, so bet responsibly guys!

The Pick: Jose Suarez over 1.5 Walks (-115) vs. Seattle Mariners (Odds via DraftKings)

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Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

At this time, I’d be remiss to not mention that Cole Irvin is on a mini-heater right now. He’s now gone 7 straight starts without allowing more than 2 Earned Runs. Yet the price for a bet on his ‘Over’ 2.5 Earned Runs prop today is -160. Very interesting.

Also supporting a pick on the Astros is the fact they’ve added reinforcements since their last clash with Irvin on July 27th. They’ve since acquired Trey Mancini, and that man was finally unleashed last night, posting a 3 for 4 night with 2 runs, an RBI and a double. As if we needed another reason to back the home squad’s team total today. I’ll take the favorite to score 5+ runs!

The Pick: Astros Team Total over 4.5 @ -115 (odds via BetMGM)

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