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@FastMoneyLabs' +460 Friday Night MLB Parlay - 5/5

Cinco De Mayo + Friday = a four leg FastMoneyLabs Friday night MLB parlay.

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$FML's Friday Night Parlay

Leg 1: Zack Wheeler UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox

Boston’s scored 84 RUNS in the last 2 weeks. Pure insanity. They’re mashing. The strategy? Be aggressive. They’re swing at the first pitch 25% of the time (3rd most) and making contact on 77.4% of swings (2nd best). Layer on a low chase rate, and Boston’s been a nightmare for opposing pitchers — especially in the strikeout category. 

Betting Red Sox opponents to cover their closing strikeout line is just 11-22 (33.3%) so far (source: Props.Cash). Isolate the Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) and it’s 5-16 (23.8%). Flipping that trend around reveals a 76.2% hit rate to the Under. Wheeler’s no slouch in the K department, but it’s a brutal matchup on paper. There’s also some rain in the forecast, and Philly’s bullpen is rested.

Leg 2: Masataka Yoshida to Record a Hit (-220)

Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Sticking with that same game… can you name a hotter hitter than Yoshida? Dude’s slaying.

0.446 batting average in the last 14 days?! Sign me up. He’s putting the ball in play 84% of the time in that stretch and batting 0.439 on balls in play. This led him to be promoted to 2nd in the batting order, an optimal spot for recording hits. Batting before Justin Turner and Rafael Devers lowers the risk of walks and ensures he’ll see good pitches to hit. Look for Boston’s newest slugger to extend the hit streak to 15 tonight.

Leg 3: Kodai Senga OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies

Lefties are CRUSHING Senga; however, righties are struggling (just 0.280 wOBA), and Colorado’s lineup is heavy on the latter. They’re striking out 23.6% vs. RHP (13th most). I find that high considering their home stadium is known to inhibit strikeouts (google the “Coors Effect”). Isolate Colorado’s Away games, and the K rate rises to 26% vs. RHP (7th most). Layer on the idea they’ve never faced Senga, and it spells trouble. Look for Kodai to record at least 6+ K’s and stabilize the struggling Mets tonight.

Leg 4: Pete Alonso to record a Hit (-270)

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies

I’ve said it before, and it’s a cold hard fact: no man’s more dangerous in that batters box than an angry polar bear. Now consider this. The Mets were just swept out of Detroit in the most embarrassing fashion possible. They’ve dropped 9 of their last 11 games, and you know what they say… don’t poke the bear. Now he’s poked and back in the comfort of his own lair (Citi Field). 

Long-story short: look for an angry, motivated Pete Alonso to smash at least one base hit tonight. For what it’s worth, he’s 4 for 9 lifetime off Antonio Senzatela with a double.

The Slip

I got +460 for the 4-leg SGP+ at FanDuel Sportsbook & risked 0.25 units!

I also sprinkled 0.5U on each individual SGP just in case!

3 total bets. Max Loss: -1.25U | Max Win: +2.52U

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