@FastMoneyLabs' +777 Friday Night Parlay - 6/17

Here’s a fun stat: The Cincinnati Reds are 20-9 (69%) vs. their Team Total (TT) at Great American Ballpark this year. Factoring in odds, if we bet Reds TT every home game, we’d be up +9.9 units with a +28.35% ROI. For context on how good that is – it’s nearly double the ROI we’d get from backing the 2nd most profitable home team (Cleveland Guardians at +14.63%).

Looking at splits, we see they’re thriving against Left-Handed Pitching (LHP). The Reds rank 6th in MLB vs. LHPs in the last 30 days (as measured by wRC+), which improves to 3rd best in the last 14 days.

Tonight, they’re facing another Lefty in Eric Lauer, who’s coming off his worst start of the year (8 earned runs in 5 IP). Lauer’s a guy that’s flashed signs of brilliance at times this year; however, when he does – it’s usually from the comfort of his own home. On the road, he has a 5.05 ERA this year in 7 starts.

The weather forecast also supports a bet on the Reds offense to score 5+ runs with warm temps and wind projected to blow out to center.

If we’re right on the Team Total, I like the Reds’ chances at winning the game. That’s because rookie flamethrower Hunter Greene is pitching for them tonight, and that dude throws heat.

For what it’s worth – Milwaukee tagged Greene for 8 runs in a start on May 5th, but I’m willing to look past that considering he’s a rookie. In a subsequent start vs. them, Greene pitched much better, allowing just 4 hits in 5.1 IP. He’s caught fire since then and is coming off two dominant starts including most recently vs. a strong Cardinals lineup.

To be safe you could just do Reds TT over 4.5 for Leg 1, but I like the value I’m seeing in the combo at +145 today.

Perfect storm to back an Over. This is a matchup between two of the Top-7 offenses vs. RHPs the last 30 days (as measured by wRC+).

Both pitchers have sub-3.0 ERAs, but their expected ERAs (calculated by MLB Statcast) indicate negative regression could be imminent:

Boston’s coming off an embarrassing home loss where they stranded 13 runners on base and went 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position. I don’t know if they’ll win tonight but feel confident those stats are due for positive correction!

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are coming off a rest day and should be ready to rock vs. Michael Wacha.

This Game Total opened at 9.5 but drifted up to 10.5 at time of writing. For my parlay, I bought down a run to the original line (9.5) using the Alt Lines feature.

Don’t look now guys, but the infamous Fantasy Football Commissioner and 3x MVP is heating up. Since relinquishing his Commissioner duties, he’s actually on fire.

Last night, Mike Trout belted 2 home runs, and tonight he gets a matchup vs. a Left-Handed Pitcher – his best performance split (at least this year).

He’s slashing 0.370 with a 0.525 OBP and 0.783 Slugging Percentage vs. Left-Handed Starters in 61 plate appearances so far in 2022.

So why is this bet plus odds? It’s because the Lefty he’s going up against is Robbie Ray – one of the best. But if anyone can beat Ray, it’s probably Mr. Trout, no?

Also supporting this pick is the fact Mike Trout loves smashing the cover off baseballs at T-Mobile Park. His 1.145 On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage there is his highest of any ballpark with 11+ games played.

Of the 3 bets I’ve highlighted, this is probably the riskiest since Trout has a tendency to Walk, which can be a Total Base Prop killer. I feel we’re being properly compensated for that risk with plus money odds tonight, though. If anything, it’ll make for a nice all-night sweat if and when we clear Legs 1 and 2. As such, I’m backing Trout with confidence to secure the bag for us as Leg 3.