Spoiler alert: If you don’t like fun. Stop reading now. Because this one should be good.
We’ve got another dream pitching matchup for Over bettors today. This time we’re going full Game Total (not just Team Total) and fading Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 4.44 ERA) for Toronto and Jordan Lyles (3-5, 4.97 ERA) for Baltimore.
Both pitchers have been bad and are trending worse, as shown below:
Last time Lyles faced Toronto (July 2021), he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings pitched. This year’s Jays lineup is even more potent from a talent perspective and is scorching hot right now, ranking 2nd in wRC+ vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) in the last 14 days.
Looking at the other side of the equation, Kikuchi’s fared marginally better vs. Baltimore, but they still tagged him for 3 Earned Runs in two career matchups.
Baltimore is also on a tear vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP), posting a 144 wRC+ vs. them in the last 14 days (5th best in MLB).
When I saw this game total open at 9.5 last night, I almost immediately hammered it. Luckily I didn’t, because it since dropped down to 9, and I’m not sure why. It’s never comfortable going against line movement but frankly, in this case, I don’t care. I’m buying the dip and backing the OVER with confidence at -110 odds available at time of writing