Odds via FanDuel
The San Diego Padres (SDP) are 36-28 (56.3%) ATS this year. Factoring in odds, if you backed SDP spread (also referred to as run line) every game, you’d be up +8.3 units with a +10.07% ROI (source: evanalytics.com). Last night, the Padres scored 19 runs on 21 hits. Today, they’re facing struggling rookie Matt Swarmer, who’s allowed 7 home runs in just 11 innings pitched since his MLB debut for the Cubs.
If Swarmer wants to flip the script, he’s starting at an uphill climb today. That’s because it’s 90 degrees in Chicago with 15-20mph winds blowing out to center. Considering Wrigley Field is the most wind-sensitive ballpark in the country, the home run prone rookie is not set up for success today. His only real hope was for his opponent to rest some starters today which, unfortunately for Swarmer, the Padres are not.
In the off-chance he does pitch better, the Cubs offense will likely struggle today. That’s because they’re facing Padres ace Joe Musgrove, who sports a 2.60 expected ERA – top 9% in MLB. Musgrove is a ground ball pitcher who’s only allowed 4 home runs all year in 72 innings pitched. This makes the wind forecast less of an issue for a guy like him relative to Swarmer.
The Cubs bullpen is also fried and fatigued. They’ve pitched countless innings since being whooped in the Bronx last weekend, and I don’t see that stopping today. String all those points together, and I feel we’re staring at a strong bet. I’m backing Padres -1.5 with confidence today.