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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 7/12

Baltimore Orioles (43-44) at Chicago Cubs (34-52)

Can you name a more fun team to bet on than the Orioles right now? They’re currently cruising on an 8-game win streak for the first time since 2005 powered by consistent scoring (5.1 runs per game during the streak) and strong pitching (3.4 runs allowed per game).

Tonight, they arrive in Chicago for an interleague clash with the Cubs. I like the Birds chances to keep it rolling vs. a team that’s lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. The market clearly disagrees, though, with Baltimore currently priced as a slight underdog for tonight’s clash. I think this chalks up to the fact Chicago holds a slight pitching advantage with Adrian Sampson on the bump vs. Jordan Lyles. Also, if we’re being honest… it’s the Orioles. How many games can they realistically win in a row?

Out of respect for the market, rather than gamble on the winner, I see better value in a bet that isolates the Game Total. That’s because tonight fits a profitable betting system widely known as the Wrigley Field Windy Over.

Tonight’s weather forecast expects 10+ MPH winds blowing out to right-center field. Mixed with hot temps (82 degrees), this creates a potent cocktail for inducing runs – at least historically. According to RotoGrinders.Com, these weather conditions boost home run potential by +50.5% and overall run scoring by +31.1%. Those estimates are based on a real 162 game sample with similar weather at Wrigley Field since 2000.

Below shows the game-by-game results in this situation since 2019:


As you can see in the bottom of the table – the average game total in this situation was 12.3 with a median value of 11.0. Betting the over vs. a hypothetical 9.0 line was 16-5-1 since 2019 and 9-1 in the last 10.

I honestly don’t care who’s pitching – that’s enough sample size to get me to bite on a Windy Wrigley Over almost every time when the weather is right. I also like how this bet also gives us exposure to the sizzling hot Orioles bats – a win/win.

Pricing is somewhat fluid on this bet, as some books still list o/u 9 while others bumped up to 9.5. I locked in over 9 at -115 odds available at time of writing and would take this bet up to 9.5.

The Pick: Orioles/Cubs Over 9 (-115) via Caesars