@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 7/12

Baltimore Orioles (43-44) at Chicago Cubs (34-52)

Can you name a more fun team to bet on than the Orioles right now? They’re currently cruising on an 8-game win streak for the first time since 2005 powered by consistent scoring (5.1 runs per game during the streak) and strong pitching (3.4 runs allowed per game).

Tonight, they arrive in Chicago for an interleague clash with the Cubs. I like the Birds chances to keep it rolling vs. a team that’s lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. The market clearly disagrees, though, with Baltimore currently priced as a slight underdog for tonight’s clash. I think this chalks up to the fact Chicago holds a slight pitching advantage with Adrian Sampson on the bump vs. Jordan Lyles. Also, if we’re being honest… it’s the Orioles. How many games can they realistically win in a row?

Out of respect for the market, rather than gamble on the winner, I see better value in a bet that isolates the Game Total. That’s because tonight fits a profitable betting system widely known as the Wrigley Field Windy Over.

Tonight’s weather forecast expects 10+ MPH winds blowing out to right-center field. Mixed with hot temps (82 degrees), this creates a potent cocktail for inducing runs – at least historically. According to RotoGrinders.Com, these weather conditions boost home run potential by +50.5% and overall run scoring by +31.1%. Those estimates are based on a real 162 game sample with similar weather at Wrigley Field since 2000.

Below shows the game-by-game results in this situation since 2019:

$FML

As you can see in the bottom of the table – the average game total in this situation was 12.3 with a median value of 11.0. Betting the over vs. a hypothetical 9.0 line was 16-5-1 since 2019 and 9-1 in the last 10.

I honestly don’t care who’s pitching – that’s enough sample size to get me to bite on a Windy Wrigley Over almost every time when the weather is right. I also like how this bet also gives us exposure to the sizzling hot Orioles bats – a win/win.

Pricing is somewhat fluid on this bet, as some books still list o/u 9 while others bumped up to 9.5. I locked in over 9 at -115 odds available at time of writing and would take this bet up to 9.5.

The Pick: Orioles/Cubs Over 9 (-115) via Caesars

Free Bets & Offers


💰 Bet $10 on any NFL game & Win $200 when a TD is scored! 🏈
Exclusively to IL, KS & LA only
JOIN HERE!
⚡️ Get a $1,250 Risk-Free Bet!
New Customers in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY.
CLAIM OFFER
Bet $100 & Get $100 in Free Bets
T&C's apply 21+ VA only.
Join WynnBet
⚡️ $1,000 Risk-Free Bet on ANY Sport!
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY.
CLAIM OFFER
Get our experts' latest picks and free bets straight to your inbox!
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.7.10 (1)