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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 7/13

Yankees to score 5+ Runs & Win (-135) vs. Reds

Baseball’s best team is coming off a game where they blew a 3-0 lead in the 9th inning to cement a rare, 3-game losing skid. It happened in their home ballpark, too.

I’m buying the dip. The Yanks only plated 3 runs last night but still scattered 9 hits and had plenty of scoring chances. That was without Aaron Judge in the starting lineup. While tonight’s lineups are still pending (at time of writing), but my working assumption is that Judge will start. Even if he doesn’t, tonight projects as a solid bounce back spot for the Bombers vs. Mike Minor.

Minor is a veteran Left-Handed Pitcher (LHP) that’s allowed 4+ Earned Runs in 5 of his 7 starts this year. What’s sad about that (for him) is how he’s yet to face good competition. Teams that scored 4+ off him include: the Pirates, Giants, Brewers, Diamondbacks and even the lowly Nationals.

The Yankees are a different breed – the likes of which Minor’s yet to face in 2022. They currently rank 3rd in MLB vs. LHPs (as measured by wRC+) and boast a lineup that destroys Fastballs and Sliders – two pitches Mike Minor throws 75%+ of the time.

Would I like to get closer to -110 odds on a bet the Yankees will score 5+ runs and win? Of course. Do I still see value at -135? Absolutely. I laid the juice to win a unit at MGM.

Yankees to score 5+ Runs & Win (-135) vs. Reds