A tale of two Tigers. Against Right-Handed Pitching (RHP), they look like Tiger cubs. Bring in a Lefty and they roar like Kings.
Betting Detroit to score 2+ First Five (F5) innings runs is 11-3 (79%) in their last 14 games vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP). They rank #4 in wRC+ and wOBA in that stretch vs. the split.
That sets up a nice matchup for them vs. Yusei Kikuchi — a LHP and one of our top fade targets. Betting Kikuchi to allow 2+ F5 runs is 8-1 in his last 9 starts. It’s worth noting that tonight marks his return from the IL, and he could be in a pitch count. As such, my preferred betting angle is one that exploits Kikuchi time by isolating the First 5 Innings and backing the Tigers to score 2+ runs.
Also supporting this pick is the simple fact that Detroit’s entire starting lineup is fully-vaccinated and will be in Toronto. Other clubs haven’t been as lucky in terms of personnel being available in Canada. The Tigers aren’t the best road team, but I’m willing to bet they can plate at least 2+ runs in this dream matchup vs. Kikuchi.
Tigers F5 Team Total o1.5 (-120) vs. Blue Jays
odds via DraftKings
If your book doesn’t offer F5 Team Totals, two alternate betting angles I like include: Full Game Team Total over 3.5 (+100), and Both Teams to Score 3+ Runs (+100) — odds available at MGM at time of writing.
