@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet - 8/15

We're going for three in a row tonight!

Same Game Parlay for Philadelphia Phillies (63-51) at Cincinnati Reds (45-68)

This might sound crazy guys, but hear me out:

Leg 1: Mike Minor Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-152)

  • 18 of the last 21 (85.7%) Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) finished 'Under’ their strikeout prop line vs. Phillies.
  • Only 7 of 32 (21.9%) LHP achieved 6+ strikeouts in a game vs. them this season.
  • Minor’s strikeout prop line is inflated today, because the Reds’ bullpen is fried. They burned through 5 of 8 available relief pitchers yesterday. All 5 guys threw 9+ pitches, and 4 of them tossed into double digits.
  • As a result, Mike Minor might get an extended leash to pitch deep tonight. Even still, 6+ Ks feels like a stretch for a guy like him.
  • Minor ranks in the bottom 24% of K rate this season and has failed to pitch more than 5.33 innings in 8 of his 12 starts.
  • Even if he pitches 6 full innings tonight, the math doesn’t add up. Excluding 1 outlier performance where he recorded 8 Ks vs. the Pirates, Minor is a 0.83 K per inning guy this year. This isn’t rocket science… It’s simple math. 6 innings x 0.83 K per inning = 4.98 Ks.
  • This tells me he likely needs to pitch more than 6 full innings to cover 6+ Ks, and I feel that’s a tall ask.
  • The Phillies just faced 3 of the best pitchers in the National League this weekend in Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt.
  • If you don’t think they’re lickin’ their chops for a matchup vs. Minor tonight, I’ve got an oceanfront property to sell ya in Nebraska.

Leg 2: Mike Minor 3+ Strikeouts (-1600)

  • That is not a typo. I might hate Minor’s chances of recording 6+ Ks, but love him to finish with 3, 4 or 5.
  • 7 of the last 10 (70%) LHP finished with exactly 3, 4 or 5 Ks vs. the Phillies.
  • Minor himself also finished with exactly 3, 4 or 5 Ks in 13 of his last 16 (81.3%) starts, including 9 of 12 (75%) this year.
  • The Phillies are a tough matchup, but if Minor gets the leash I expect tonight, he's fully capable of getting at least 3+ Ks.

Looking at those hit rates, I was surprised to get -110 odds on this parlay at FanDuel and locked it in to win 1 unit.

Note: In the event the line drops down to o/u 4.5, I suggest holding off based on the math we did in section 1 (projecting roughly 4.98 Ks in 6 IP).

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