@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet - 8/17

Fast Money Labs ($FML) |

Wed 17 Aug 2022 17.30

Am I disappointed we lost our 3-day winning streak last night? Very. Am I going to sulk about it? Hell nah. Let’s get back on track with a plus money play!

+122 Strikeouts Parlay (odds via FanDuel)

Leg 1: George Kirby 5+ Strikeouts vs. Angels

This former first round pick has a 24.1% strikeout rate through his first 16 career starts — good for a Top 39% percentile ranking.

Today, gets the dream matchup we like to target for pitcher K props vs. the lowly Halos. Sorry if this sounds like a broken record, but they still have the highest strikeout rate vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (26.8%) in MLB and 2nd highest since the trade deadline (26.6%).

In 2 matchups vs. them, Kirby finished with 6 and 8 Ks. He’s averaging 5.4 Ks in his last 10 starts with a median value of 5.5. Looking at his last 5 road starts, his average improves to 5.8 Ks per start with a median value of 6.0.

If you’re feelin’ risky, you could consider going with 6+ Ks for Leg 1, which cashed in both of their matchups this season. However, in spirit of safety, I prefer to back this 5+ K Alt Line for leg 1, which has a meaningfully higher hit rate for RHPs vs. LAA in the last 30 days than 6+ K.

Leg 2: Domingo German Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Rays

This line feels at least 1 strikeout too high. He’s pitching to a career low 16.5% strikeout rate this season and finished Under 5.5 Ks in 4 of his 5 starts. He’s averaging just 0.73 Ks per inning, and his Outs prop line for tonight implies to expect 5.33 innings. Even if he outperforms and pitches 6 full innings, the math doesn’t add up (6 innings x 0.73 Ks per inning = 4.38 Ks).

The Rays were once a high Strikeout rate team and technically still have the 5th highest vs. RHP this season. However, looking at more recent periods, they’ve improved substantially in that category up and down the lineup. Their trade deadline acquisition of David Peralta, a low strikeout rate player, is certainly helping in that regard, but it’s not just him.

For what it’s worth — there’s also rain in the Bronx forecast tonight, which supports a bet on Under 5.5 Ks too.