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@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet - 8/18

Alright guys, in case you missed it: I’m publicly committed to starting a Heater today. All starts with this. Let’s ride.

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We got burned on a Walk Prop the other night, and it hurt for a minute, but I believe successful gambling requires short-term memory. When I smell blood in the water, I’m going to attack regardless of yesterday’s results. Now let’s get down to business.

Betting the White Sox’ 2012 1st round pick to walk 2+ batters is 14-7 (67%) this season but just 3-3 (50%) in his last 6. Looking at the games that missed, they were against the Guardians (2x) and Tigers. Those teams have the 28th and 29th ranked Team Walk Rates vs. RHP, respectively, since the All-Star Break. Said differently — nobody walks the Guardians and Tigers.

I mentioned this prop is 14-7 (67%) on the season. Looking at the games that finished under: 4 of the 7 were vs. the Guardians or Tigers (who we just established don’t walk), and 2 of the remaining 3 were vs. the Angels — another low walk rate team. Against all other clubs, betting Gio to walk 2+ batters is 12-1 (92.3%).

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Today’s matchup is virtually the opposite of those teams in that the Astros rank #7 in Walk Rate vs. RHP this season. 5 of the 9 players in their projected lineup today have double digit walk rates (Altuve, Alvarez, Bergman, Tucker and McCormick). The result is a balanced lineup that doesn’t rely on 1-2 individuals to draw all the walks. As such, 11 of the last 16 (68.8%) RHP they faced walked 2+ Astros.

Looking back at Giolito’s last 2 matchups vs. Houston, he walked 3 Astros on June 17th (this season) and 5 on October 8th (last postseason). That’s 8 total walks in just 9.1 innings pitched — just under a walk per inning. Now let’s take that one step further. His Outs prop for today’s contest is listed at o/u 17.5, which implies Vegas expects him to pitch roughly 6 innings. His walk rate vs. the Astros might be due for some positive regression today, but even still — if Giolito pitches 5-6+ innings, I like his chances to walk 2+.

I’m 100% committed to starting a Heater today, and it all starts with Gio.

$FML's Pick

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Lucas Giolito Over 1.5 Walks @ -125

Note — I bet Gio 2+ Walks straight, but if you’re feelin’ risky: below are two more walk props worth considering for a parlay today:

  • Brad Keller over 1.5 Walks (-145) vs. Rays
  • Corbin Burnes over 1.5 Walks (-190) vs. Dodgers

If your book doesn’t offer Walk Props — be sure to follow me on Twitter and I’ll do my best to recommend an alternative winner there.