@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/2

Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. Reds

If the 7th Overall Pick in the 2016 Draft’s name wasn’t on your radar, let’s change that now!
Through 10 starts and 52.1 innings this season, this rising star ranks:

  • 97th percentile in Chase rate
  • 68th percentile Whiff rate
  • 67th percentile K rate
  • 83rd percentile Walk rate

In other words — the man goes by the name Braxton Garrett, throws absolute heat, has superior pitch movement, and is near-certified in making opponents look silly. Oh, and he’s just 24-years-young and is slingin’ as a Southpaw (i.e. Lefty).

Now to be fair, Braxton’s burst up the leaderboards has been powered — at least in part — by a string of soft matchups vs. the Pirates (11 Ks), Pirates again (7 Ks), and most recently the Reds (8 Ks). Tonight, he’s blessed with another repeat matchup vs. the Reds, this time in Miami.

Speaking of those Reds — they’re in the midst of a full-out fire-sale, and today is the trade deadline. Since hosting Braxton Garrett and the Marlins last week, Cincinnati’s dealt two of their best bats (Tommy Pham to Red Sox & Tyler Naquin to Mets), and are dangling multiple other key pieces on the bloc at time of writing, including: Brandon Drury, Nick Senzel & Kyle Farmer.

  • If one or more of those players are dealt by first pitch then we should cruise, because their replacements will in all likelihood be downgrades — if anything for the simple reason the trade deadline is 6PM ET and this game starts at 6:40, which poses a logistical challenge to stopping the Braxton train tonight.
  • If they’re not dealt — I won’t be too mad, since all the names being floated are high K% guys vs. RHP (minus Farmer)

My readers might find this pick funny since I often preach against backing the same Pitcher’s K prop twice in a row vs. the same opponent (for the simple reason that I believe familiarity benefits bats). However — given the trade deadline craziness just discussed — I’m willing (and excited) to make a well-deserved exception by hopping on the Braxton Garrett train tonight!

Choo Choo! All Aboard. Next stop 6+ Ks… (Now here’s to hoping FlashPicks doesn’t trade me after I just typed that!)

The Pick: Braxton Garrett o5.5 Ks (+104)

Odds via FanDuel

$FML

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