I honestly don’t know what we did to deserve a Lodolo/Suarez rematch, but I’m ready for it!
These two youngsters clashed in a classic pitchers duel last week in Cincinnati. Neither starter allowed a run, and both finished with 8 strikeouts.
Suarez’ performance was somewhat expected vs. a Reds team with the 5th highest strikeout rate vs. Left-Handed Pitching and 3rd highest in the last 30 days. Suarez isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher - per se - but has a strong track record covering vs. weak teams.
Lodolo, on the other hand, caught me off guard. No sugar coating it. Only 4 of 33 (12%) LHP had eclipsed 7+ strikeouts vs. the Phillies prior to last week. I bet his Under 6.5 Ks prop. Lodolo said “Hold my beer,” and proceeded to smash the line by tallying 8 strikeouts (shaving a year or two off my life in the process).
Today’s rematch is expected to feature similar lineups with the main difference being location. Last week was played in Cincy. Round 2 is in Philly.
Lodolo’s line opened at 5.5 (-150) before rising sharply to 6.5 (+115) by sunrise. I honestly don’t expect him to hit that again, but am I crazy enough to back his Under again? That I am not.
Suarez opened at 4.5 with heavy juice to the over. It’s since shifted up to 5.5 plus money at some shops including FanDuel, and it’s easy to see why. 8 of the last 10 LHP finished with 5+ Ks vs. Cincinnati, which makes 4.5 a key number to lock in vs. them. The hit rate drops off at 5.5. Obviously Suarez smashed that line, but K’s typically dip the 2nd time around.