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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/23

Cincinnati Reds (48-72) at Philadelphia Phillies (67-55)

I honestly don’t know what we did to deserve a Lodolo/Suarez rematch, but I’m ready for it!

These two youngsters clashed in a classic pitchers duel last week in Cincinnati. Neither starter allowed a run, and both finished with 8 strikeouts.

Suarez’ performance was somewhat expected vs. a Reds team with the 5th highest strikeout rate vs. Left-Handed Pitching and 3rd highest in the last 30 days. Suarez isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher - per se - but has a strong track record covering vs. weak teams.

Lodolo, on the other hand, caught me off guard. No sugar coating it. Only 4 of 33 (12%) LHP had eclipsed 7+ strikeouts vs. the Phillies prior to last week. I bet his Under 6.5 Ks prop. Lodolo said “Hold my beer,” and proceeded to smash the line by tallying 8 strikeouts (shaving a year or two off my life in the process).

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo

Today’s rematch is expected to feature similar lineups with the main difference being location. Last week was played in Cincy. Round 2 is in Philly.

Lodolo’s line opened at 5.5 (-150) before rising sharply to 6.5 (+115) by sunrise. I honestly don’t expect him to hit that again, but am I crazy enough to back his Under again? That I am not.

Suarez opened at 4.5 with heavy juice to the over. It’s since shifted up to 5.5 plus money at some shops including FanDuel, and it’s easy to see why. 8 of the last 10 LHP finished with 5+ Ks vs. Cincinnati, which makes 4.5 a key number to lock in vs. them. The hit rate drops off at 5.5. Obviously Suarez smashed that line, but K’s typically dip the 2nd time around.

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I’ll admit — It was tempting to back this pair for a Lucky 7’s parlay. We’ve done well with those lately. But my gut tells me it’s risky business today, and I’m just not feeling it. Both offenses just saw these guys and should be more disciplined 2nd time around.

That said, I fully expect 5+ from both guys & was pleased to get near +100 odds for the parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s my best bet for the jam packed Tuesday slate, and I locked it in for 1 unit.


Odds via DraftKings