@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/24

There was a point this season when I penned articles about the Jays… a lot. It felt dangerously close to a Westworld loop, but with a happy ending. Then they dipped off, but now they’re back and hanging by a thread (+0.5 Games) to a Wild Card spot. With 41 games left to play, I'm chompin’ at the bit to get back on the horse.

Toronto enters play tonight on a 5-1 run in their last 6, scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game in that stretch. Last night, they pummeled their rival Red Sox by a final score of 9-3 to extend their Fenway Park winning streak to 6 straight. The Jays are now 8-1 in their last 9 visits to Boston.

In a laughable attempt to stop the bleeding, the Red Sox are tapping rookie RHP Brayan Bello to start off the IL tonight, and he’s been bad. His minor league numbers are excellent but have yet to translate to the Big Leagues, where he’s posted an 0-3 record and 8.47 ERA in five appearances for Boston this season. One of those outings was vs. these Jays at Fenway Park, and they tagged him with 5 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings pitched.

Get our experts' latest picks and free bets straight to your inbox!
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

If you’ve been following my column, you know Jose Berrios isn’t my favorite Toronto slinger (to put it nicely), but to give credit where it’s due – he’s fared well against the Sox this season, allowing just three earned runs over 13 innings. He’s also coming off a strong performance in New York on a night when it felt like the entire country was fading him with heavy wagers on Yankees Team Total.

If the Red Sox want to put Berrios in his place, they’ll need to do it without Tommy Pham and likely Xander Boegarts, too, as both players exited last night’s game with Back Spasms. Those injuries are on top of Eric Hosmer and Trevor Story, two strong bats that remain sidelined on the IL. That leaves just 5 Red Sox starters to pick up the slack.

Long-story short: The Jays not only have more to play for; they have the Red Sox number this year and especially at Fenway Park. Faced with a choice of backing struggling rookie Brayan Bello vs. a healthy, motivated Jays team, or veteran Jose Berrios vs. a depleted, emotionally drained Red Sox lineup; I’ll back the Vet.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios

To get odds into reasonable betting range, I paired Jays ML with a bet they’ll score 4+ runs as they’ve done in 5 of their last 6 games overall and 5 of last 6 visits to Fenway Park. I got -125 odds using the Same Game Parlay feature on DraftKings (also available at MGM) and laid the juice to win 1 unit.

If you’re feelin risky, dialing it up to 5+ & Win feels reasonable for this matchup, too, but 4+ has a meaningfully higher hit rate, which led me to prefer that number.

betslip
Odds via DraftKings SportsBook or MGM
⚡️ $1,000 No Sweat First Bet 💰
CLAIM OFFER
New users in AZ, CT, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WY, WV.

Free Bets & Offers


💰 Bet $10 on any NFL game & Win $200 when a TD is scored! 🏈
Exclusively to IL, KS & LA only
JOIN HERE!
⚡️ Get a $1,250 Risk-Free Bet!
New Customers in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY.
CLAIM OFFER
Bet $100 & Get $100 in Free Bets
T&C's apply 21+ VA only.
Join WynnBet
⚡️ $1,000 Risk-Free Bet on ANY Sport!
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY.
CLAIM OFFER
Get our experts' latest picks and free bets straight to your inbox!
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.7.10 (1)