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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 8/27

After back-to-back heartbreaking nights (Kevin Gausman on Thursday and Chris Bassitt Friday), $FML swiped into the office a motivated man today. And that might be an understatement. Let’s see if he can’t get back on track with a plus money pick.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (87-37) at Miami Marlins (54-71)

We backed the NL Cy Young favorite, Sandy Alcantara, last week vs. the LA Dodgers. And in the most Ron Burgundy voice possible – milk was a bad choice. We needed him to complete 6.2+ innings to secure a Pitching Outs prop. And by all accounts, that prediction didn’t age well. LA tattooed him with 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 3.2 IP.

I thought Sandy had that dawg in him. Thought he could flip the script in the matchup. It didn’t happen. After last week’s pummeling, he’s now allowed a whopping 17 earned runs in just 9 innings pitched (total) vs. LAD across 3 starts since 2021. If Pedro called the 2004 Yankees his Daddy; then the 2021-22 Dodgers are Sandy’s Milkman. They’re his absolute kryptonite.

Earned runs aside, the most important matchup stat to highlight might be the fact Sandy failed to make it past 4+ innings in each of his last 3 matchups vs. LAD. If that happens again, then Miami’s in serious trouble tonight, because they just went with a bullpen game yesterday. If Sandy fails to get through 6+ innings, then I predict with confidence that this game settles as a blowout.

Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins
Marlins Ace, Sandy Alcantara

Even if Sandy does get through 6+, I like LAD’s chances to win the game with Dustin May pitching. The talented 24-year-old dazzled in his first start back from Tommy John surgery last week, striking out 9 and allowing just 1 hit in 5 scoreless innings pitched vs. this same Miami team. Dustin already had elite strikeout ability (38% K rate last season). Then he added a changeup to his arsenal, and the 2022 version of Mr. May is borderline unfair.

What I find amazing about his 9 strikeout performance last week is the fact he only faced 18 batters. That’s a 50 percent strikeout rate. Clearly that level isn’t sustainable, but even if he regresses towards his 2021 K rate (38%) tonight, I like his chances to finish with 6+ Strikeouts. I arrived at that number using simple math:

If we assume he faces 18 batters again. Then 18 x 38% K rate = 6.84 strikeouts. I see some upside from there, too, because it’s possible he’ll face more than 18 batters tonight, as he continues to build up stamina with each performance after surgery.

For all these reasons, I see strong value in a bet Dustin May will record 6+ Strikeouts and Dodgers Win at +130 odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook (at time of writing). I risked a full unit to win 1.3 and would bet this down to -110ish.

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$FML Best Bet

The Pick: Dustin May 6+ Strikeouts & Dodgers Win (+130)

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