@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 9/28

Take this for whatever it’s worth to you since we’re ice cold right now, but I’m fading Daniel Lynch, a struggling Lefty (LHP) who’s posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his last 7 starts, and backing a variation of the Tigers vs. LHP trend that’s been profitable for us.

$1,000 No Sweat First Bet 💰
CLAIM OFFER
New users in AZ, CT, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WY, WV.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

I’ve mentioned in past FlashPicks columns that Detroit outperforms vs. Lefties, and the statement still holds true. If they only faced LHP, they’d be a Top-7 offense this month according to the weighted runs created plus (wRC+) statistic.
They’ve already faced Lynch twice this month and scored 4+ runs by the 5th inning both times. Trends like this ebb and flow, but I’m willing to bet they can muster up a similar performance tonight.

I view the risk to this bet being a potential dependency on home runs. Lynch served up 2+ dingers in 4 of his last 9 outings, a trend that might not be sustainable. Eventually, in theory, he’s due for better fly ball luck.

That’s a risk I debated and ultimately accepted here, since according to RotoGrinders.com, tonight’s wind forecast boosts home run potential by +19.6% relative to a weather-neutral game at Comerica Park (based on a sample of 53 games with similar weather conditions).

Kansas City’s offense has been buzzing lately, but it’s been mostly against Lefties, and tonight they face a respectable Righty in Matt Manning. The 2nd year starter is pitching to a 2.52 ERA at home this season, continuing a trend from his rookie year. He’s now allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of 17 career starts at Comerica Park since debuting with the Tigers.

It was tempting to back Detroit’s Team Total (either F5 o1.5 or Full Game o3.5) based on all this information. However, as I ran through my checklist, I felt spooked and surprised by the fact this game has such a low Game Total (7.5 at time of writing). 70%+ of tickets are hitting the Over yet the line hasn’t moved. This led me to prefer a slightly different bet that the Tigers will win the First 5 innings.

If they can muster up at least 2+ runs off Lynch, then we should be in the clear with Manning on the hill.

$FML Best Bet

The Pick:

Tigers F5 -0.5 Run Line (+110)

odds widely available | $FML bet to win 1U

FML
Zips

AKRON

Bulls

BUFF

NCAAF | Fri 12/02, 6:00 PM
Rockets

TOLEDO

-110

-3

Bobcats

OHIO

-110

+3

NCAAF | Sat 12/03, 5:00 PM
Bulldogs

FRES

-105

+3

Broncos

BOISE

-115

-3

NCAAF | Sat 12/03, 9:00 PM
Knights

UCF

Green Wave

TULANE

NCAAF | Sat 12/03, 9:00 PM
Midshipmen

NAVY

Black Knights

ARMY

NCAAF | Sat 12/10, 8:00 PM
🚨 $6,000 in Free Bets 🚨
CLAIM NOW
We have over $6,000 in free bets available, check out what's available in your state!

Free Bets & Offers


🍗 Thanksgiving Offer 🏈 Bet $20, Get $100!
21+ in CO, VA, MI. Promo code GET100
Claim Now
Bet $5 & Get $150 in Free Bets 💰
AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WY, WV 21+ only
CLAIM NOW
Bet $10 on any World Cup game & Win $200 When A Goal Is Scored ⚽️💰
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY. 21+ only
CLAIM OFFER
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.1 (1)