@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 9/28

Take this for whatever it’s worth to you since we’re ice cold right now, but I’m fading Daniel Lynch, a struggling Lefty (LHP) who’s posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his last 7 starts, and backing a variation of the Tigers vs. LHP trend that’s been profitable for us.

I’ve mentioned in past FlashPicks columns that Detroit outperforms vs. Lefties, and the statement still holds true. If they only faced LHP, they’d be a Top-7 offense this month according to the weighted runs created plus (wRC+) statistic.
They’ve already faced Lynch twice this month and scored 4+ runs by the 5th inning both times. Trends like this ebb and flow, but I’m willing to bet they can muster up a similar performance tonight.

I view the risk to this bet being a potential dependency on home runs. Lynch served up 2+ dingers in 4 of his last 9 outings, a trend that might not be sustainable. Eventually, in theory, he’s due for better fly ball luck.

That’s a risk I debated and ultimately accepted here, since according to RotoGrinders.com, tonight’s wind forecast boosts home run potential by +19.6% relative to a weather-neutral game at Comerica Park (based on a sample of 53 games with similar weather conditions).

Kansas City’s offense has been buzzing lately, but it’s been mostly against Lefties, and tonight they face a respectable Righty in Matt Manning. The 2nd year starter is pitching to a 2.52 ERA at home this season, continuing a trend from his rookie year. He’s now allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of 17 career starts at Comerica Park since debuting with the Tigers.

It was tempting to back Detroit’s Team Total (either F5 o1.5 or Full Game o3.5) based on all this information. However, as I ran through my checklist, I felt spooked and surprised by the fact this game has such a low Game Total (7.5 at time of writing). 70%+ of tickets are hitting the Over yet the line hasn’t moved. This led me to prefer a slightly different bet that the Tigers will win the First 5 innings.

If they can muster up at least 2+ runs off Lynch, then we should be in the clear with Manning on the hill.

The Pick:

Tigers F5 -0.5 Run Line (+110)

odds widely available | $FML bet to win 1U