The Birds’ Cinderella season is effectively on the line in Boston tonight. Technically they can afford a loss, but their playoff chances would evaporate to near-zero (they’re already just 0.7% at time of writing, per FanGraphs). To keep the dream alive, they basically need to win out.
Given that circumstance, how is Baltimore tagged as a moneyline underdog here vs. a Boston team that has nothing to play for? They’ve now lost 6 in a row, 9 of their last 12 and are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. I know Oddsmakers consistently disrespect the Orioles, but tonight’s moneyline price feels criminal.
It’s Kyle Bradish’s turn in Baltimore’s rotation, and they’re 8-3 (72.7%) in his last 11 starts. He’s coming off his best performance of the season, a near-complete game (8.2 IP), 2 hit, 10 strikeout shutout vs. the Astros. That’s not an easy feat vs. a World Series hopeful. The Red Sox lineup is still strong but much less potent than Houston’s.
The only thing favoring Boston here, in my opinion, is the fact Michael Wacha is scheduled to pitch, and he’s been electric at home, allowing 2 or less earned runs in 8 of 9 starts at Fenway Park. That’s a risk I’m willing to take in this spot though, given how motivated Baltimore’s lineup should be. They’re probably studying Wacha film 24/7 up until first pitch. No chance Boston’s preparing with as much rigor to face Bradish.
Baltimore’s been one of our top betting targets this season, and it’s a hill I’m willing to die on with the season on the line tonight. Feed me the O’s ML at plus money or let me starve. No middle ground for me.
If you agree, then I suggest wagering to win a unit on Baltimore ML at best available odds (currently +110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Pick: Baltimore Orioles ML (+110)