@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet: Early MLB Action - 4/18

Minnesota Twins (3-6) at Boston Red Sox (5-4)

It’s Patriots’ Day in Boston, which means an 11 AM ET start time at Fenway. Does it get any better than that to kick off a Monday?

Here’s a potentially irrelevant but still interesting stat: Since 1903, the Red Sox are 71-53 (57.3%) on Patriots’ Day. Against teams not named the New York Yankees, they’re 60-41 (59.4%). 

This year’s opponent is the same as they faced this past weekend: the Minnesota Twins.

After losing Game 1 on Friday, the host Red Sox stormed back to win 4-1 on Saturday and 8-1 yesterday.

Today, I’m licking my chops, because it’s Minnesota pitcher Dylan Bundy’s turn in the rotation. As my guy Ryan Propz rightly pointed out last week — Bundy is a guy who got regularly torched by opposing hitters last year. 

I know he looked like Nolan Ryan when we tried to fade him, But is it sustainable? Given his longer-term poor track record and lackluster performance last year, I’m skeptical and eager to fade Bundy today.

If he repeats vs. a much stronger Boston lineup that he’s struggled against in the past, I’ll tip my cap and revisit my assessment of him.

I’m writing this article early, but if I had player prop lines out, I’d be looking at Boston sluggers Xander Boegarts and Rafael Devers based on their track records vs. Bundy. I’m also intrigued by JD Martinez and Kike Hernandez props based on their performance in last year’s Patriots’ Day game (both hit home runs in the Red Sox 11-4 victory over CHW).

Since I can’t bet player props at the moment, I’m happy to ride Boston Red Sox Moneyline as a straight on my expectation they’ll have an electric home crowd behind their backs, an early mover advantage (11 AM eastern time is 10 AM local time in Minnesota), and a slight pitching advantage.

Rich Hill being on the mound isn’t ideal for Boston, but it could be worse. In limited action vs. this Twins lineup, the 42-year-old veteran held the combined talent of Carlos Correa, Garry Sanchez and Gio Urshela to 1 for 17 (0.059 AVG) with 5 strikeouts.

Assuming Twins superstar Byron Buxton will also miss his 3rd straight game, I’m comfortable trusting the ageless vet Hill to not completely melt apart and ruin this ticket for us.

$FML's Early Pick

caesars

BOSTON RED SOX ML @ -140

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