Let’s start the new month off with a bang by going 2-0!
@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bets - 8/1
Seattle Mariners (55-48) @ New York Yankees (69-34)
Under in 4 of his last 5 games. However, all four Unders were at Home. On the Road, betting Gonzales to walk 2+ batters is 6-3 (67%) this year.
Tonight, he'll be tested in a tough road matchup vs. the #1 walk team in MLB vs. Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) -- the New York Yankees.
8 out of 12 (67%) visiting LHP walked 2+ batters at Yankee Stadium this season (excluding (1) Chris Sale, injured 1st inning, and (2) Jalen Beeks, used as opener but only faced 6 batters).
In his last visit to the Bronx on August 6th, 2021, Gonzales limited the Bombers to just 3 hits in a shutout performance across 6.2 innings. Even still, he walked 2 batters that night. It's also worth emphasizing that was against the 2021 Yankees. The 2022 squad is a different breed. 7 of their 9 projected batters tonight have above average Walk rates vs. LHP.
We're getting a nice discounted price on this bet tonight since he finished Under in 4 of his last 5. However, everything about tonight's matchup screams "buy the dip." I love this -111 price we're getting, and I'd personally bet this down to -125.
Marco Gonzales (SEA) over 1.5 Walks (-111) vs. New York Yankees
odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers (68-33) @ San Francisco Giants (51-51)
Under in his last start but finished Over in 3 straight before that, including a 4 walk performance vs. this Dodgers lineup.
The 2022 LA Dodgers are known for elite plate discipline, especially vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP). Their 10.2 Walk % vs. RHP this season is good for #2 in MLB. 8 of the last 10 (80%) RHP they faced walked 2+ Dodgers.
As a divisional opponent -- the Dodgers are also extremely familiar with San Francisco pitching, which unlocks even stronger plate discipline in this matchup. 7 of 9 (78%) Giants starting pitchers walked 2+ Dodgers in their matchups this year.
I also like how Logan Webb walked 2+ batters in 4 of his last 5 (80%) home starts dating back to June 14th. When he walked 4 Dodgers on July 22nd they were in LA. Tonight, he’s back home in the Bay.
Any time we can bet pitcher to walk 2+ Dodgers at a reasonable price, I'm considering a wager. Today is one of those days, and I pulled the trigger!
Logan Webb (SFG) over 1.5 Walks (-110) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
odds via Draftkings Sportsbook
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