We cashed this matchup yesterday, and I’m licking my chops to go right back to it today but with a different angle.
@FastMoneyLabs' MLB Best Best - 6/26
Toronto Blue Jays (40-31) at Milwaukee Brewers (41-33)
Did you know the Toronto Blue Jays are scoring 5.27 runs per game on Sundays? That’s the 3rd most of any team and compares to just 4.63 runs per game on Mondays through Saturdays. They’ve now scored 6+ runs in 5 of their last 6 games with the only miss being a 5-run performance yesterday vs. Cy Young Candidate Corbin Burnes.
Today, they’re facing the polar opposite of a Cy Young candidate in Chi Chi Gonzalez. He carries a 5.71 career ERA and posted a 6.46 ERA or higher in 3 of the last 4 seasons. According to MLB Statcast, his expected ERA was even higher in 2 of those seasons.This year, Gonzalez allowed 3+ runs in all 3 of his starts, which were split between 2 different teams (he was so bad in his opening start that his 1st team dropped him). He’s yet to face the Blue Jays this year but in limited lifetime action, their roster is 5 for 14 (0.357) off him with a double and 2 home runs.
The Blue Jays are also performing well after a loss. They’re 21-9 (70%) in this situation, which makes me eager to back them today. Before we lock it in though, I believe it’s important to play Devil’s Advocate. I’ve gambled long enough to know that when it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. So what’s the catch?
The wild card in this handicap relates to Blue Jays’ pitcher Jose Berrios. He flashes signs of brilliance at times, but in most starts he’s been bad and is trending worse. His 6.21 expected ERA is bottom 3% in MLB right now. That’s not the type of stat I want to confidently back with my best bet.
The silver lining for Berrios today might relate to the calendar. That’s because unlike Toronto, Milwaukee is scoring just 4.09 runs per game on Sundays – 10th fewest in MLB – and it’s been even worse at home, where they’ve scored just 3.0 runs per game on Sundays at Miller Park.
In summary: I see multiple edges for Toronto today and like their chances to win the First 5 Innings and Full Game. However, given my hesitations on Berrios, I feel the best bet to make is one on the Jays in the Team Total market. Backing their Full Game Team Total to go over 5.5 certainly works (ideally at plus money odds), but given Milwaukee’s bullpen is respectable (3.56 ERA, 11th best), I prefer to isolate the First 5 Innings against Chi Chi Gonzalez. That’s where I see the true edge, and I like the number and price books are listing for it today. At time of writing, Draftkings is offering Toronto’s F5 Team Total Over 2.5 at -125 odds. I laid the juice at that price to win a unit.
The Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Over 2.5 Runs (F5) (-125)
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