@FastMoneyLabs’ MLB Best Bet - 4/13

The Pick: Kyle Hendricks (CHC) o3.5 Strikeouts @ -145

Was any starting pitcher more impressive than Hendricks on Opening Day?

This 32-year-old veteran doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but does the dude know how to paint corners? Yessir. He’s like Bob Ross with a Changeup.

Today, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, a divisional opponent he’s historically done well against. Hendricks also pitches better on the road, which makes sense given his home stadium (Wrigley Field) is more like a Wiffle Ball park in terms of dimensions.

In 2 starts at PNC Park last year, Hendricks went 2-0, holding the Pirates to 5 runs in 11 innings, tallying 10 strikeouts in the process — just under 1 per inning.

For his career, Hendricks has a 18.8% Strikeout Rate vs. the current Pirates roster.

This year’s Pirates club has the 10th lowest strikeout rate (22.2%) in MLB through 4 games. That number is largely in line with their strikeout percentage last year (22.1%). What makes me comfortable with the low strikeout rate is the fact that it’s well-balanced across the lineup. 8 of their 9 projected starters today have a K% >20% vs. Right-Handed Pitchers since 2019.

I don’t expect Hendricks to rack up 7 strikeouts as he did on Opening Day. But can he get 4+? Definitely.

$FML Pick

caesars

KYLE HENDRICKS (CHC) O3.5 STRIKEOUTS @ -145

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