The 2020 champs are on a roll. Last night, they pulled off a miraculous comeback win and improved to 12-2 in their last 14 games. The Dodgers have now scored 6+ runs in 3 straight contests and 4+ runs in 8 of their last 9. The timing of their recent streak corresponds with getting Mookie Betts back in the lineup on July 3rd.
I like the Dodgers’ chances to keep it rolling tonight in a favorable matchup vs. Dakota Hudson. Th 27-year-old veteran is coming off a strong start vs. the Phillies but was struggling badly before that night. Even after his strong performance vs. PHI, Hudson ranks bottom 27% in most key performance indicators on BaseballSavant.com, including xERA, xBA, xwOBA and xSLG. The Cardinals are just 8-9 when Hudson starts vs. 40-34 when he doesn’t.
This highlights a nice pitching mismatch vs. Tyler Anderson, a seasoned southpaw whose 3.18 xERA ranks in the top 23% of MLB. The Dodgers are 11-3 when he starts, and his underlying stats validate the trend. In other words – the Dodgers’ winning record when Anderson starts isn’t a fluke – he’s been excellent. The Cardinals will be a tough test, but I think Anderson’s up for the task.
There are different ways to play this, but my preferred angle is to isolate the pitching mismatch in the First 5 Innings. We don’t often get to bet the Dodgers to win the First 5 at a reasonable price (-115 at time of writing), so that’s what I did. I laid the slight juice to win a unit and would bet this line down to -130ish.
The Pick: LA Dodgers -0.5 (First 5 Innings) (-115) vs. STL
