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@FastMoneyLabs' MLB Wednesday Best Bet - 5/3

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New York Mets (16-13) at Detroit Tigers (10-17) (Double Header Game 1)

Here’s a WILD stat: Detroit ranks 18th vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP) this season (as measured by weighted Runs Created+). However, if you exclude their Opening Weekend series vs. tough Tampa pitching (McLanahan & Springs), they rank 3rd.

Today they face a Left-Handed starter for the first time in 8 days! I respect Joey Lucchesi, but the Tigers 2+ runs off lefties trend has been printing money for a while. The market’s starting to catch on, but I see a lil more juice in the fruit. Why not squeeze it?

That said, I’m aligned with Capper Penguin on the Lucchesi K Prop front! While Detroit’s offense can score vs. LHP, they strikeout A LOT (30% K rate vs. LHP is 2nd most; 28% excluding that opening series is 5th most). I see 5+ K’s in Lucchesi’s future but bought down one in spirit of safety for our parlay (it’s our first play of the day after all)!

If Detroit performs as expected, then the Mets should cash this ticket for us! They rank 16th vs. LHP so far, but last year’s team ranked Top-12 with similar personnel. The difference is small but points to upside, and this is a winnable matchup. It’s clear Wentz has raw talent, but he’s no Clayton Kershaw! The young lefty surrendered 2+ earned runs in 4 of his 5 appearances this year with the worst performances coming in day games (0-2, 10.29 ERA).

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