@FastMoneyLabs' Monday MLB Best Bet - 5/8

Did you know that betting the “Over” is 24-13-1 when these teams meet since 2021, beating the closing line by +1.39 runs on average? You know who didn’t forget? The market. Oddsmakers initially listed a modest O/U 7.5 game total for tonight’s contest. Then market forces took over, steaming the line up to 8.5 by sunrise.

Looking at this year’s matchup: Tampa’s scoring 6.43 runs per game (2nd most) and 7.15 on the road (most). They also rank 1st vs. Right Handed Pitching (RHP) as measured by weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+). Mix those facts together in a pot, throw ‘em in the oven, and I smell trouble for Kyle Gibson — an average RHP at best. He’s 4-1 through 7 starts but pitching to a 5.22 expected ERA.

The Orioles’ offense has been less consistent, but they’re resilient and thriving vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP). Baltimore currently ranks 4th in wRC+ vs. LHP; however, that prowess will be tested tonight vs. Shane McClanahan — a premier LHP.

While I’m higher on Tampa’s offense than Baltimore’s here, I see both sides scoring and wagered accordingly! The Full Game Total O8.5 is tempting, but I prefer the First 5 Innings Over 4, which offers a path to a push. Betting the F5 Game Total to go “Over” is a combined 40-24-4 for these two teams this year.