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@FastMoneyLabs' Wednesday Night Parlay - 9/14

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Leg 1: Kyle Gibson over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160) vs. Marlins

We’re fading the struggling veteran in Miami. Here’s why:

  • Allowed season-high 9 hits and 7 earned runs vs. this same Marlins team last week.
  • That game was at home where Gibson is usually at his best. Tonight, they’re on the road where he consistently pitches worse.
  • Marlins already faced him 5 times this season, which gives them an inherent advantage out of the gate in matchup #6.
  • They averaged 6.2 hits per game in those contests, clearing this 5+ hits number in 4 of the 5.
  • Gibson also allowed 5+ hits in 6 straight games, and 6+ hits in 5 of those 6.
  • Miami’s offense is historically bad, but for all the reasons outlined above, I feel they can be trusted vs. the struggling righty as Leg 1.

Leg 2: Brayan Bello over 1.5 Walks (-160) vs. Yankees

Red Sox manager Alex Cora took significant heat for pitching to Aaron Judge last night in several key spots. He defended his decision, but I expect a more cautious approach with #99 today. I see a good chance that Bello, as a young pitcher, will pitch around Judge and walk him at least walk once. Even if I’m wrong, I like Bello’s chances to walk at least 2+ batters, as he’s done in 6 of his 8 appearances this season (excluding one where he went 0.2 IP in relief).

Leg 3: Sonny Gray over 4.5 Strikeouts (-170) vs. Royals

Playing the trend in a plus matchup. This cashed in 7 of his last 9 starts, and one of those games was a 10 strikeout performance vs. this same Royals team.

8 of the last 12 RHP covered their closing strikeout line vs. Kansas City. That trend plus Gray’s success in the matchup lead me to trust him in this spot for Leg 3.

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The Slip

I got +319 odds for the parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size). With 25% boost promo, you can get it up to +399. Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy, so please bet responsibly and best of luck!

FML

$FML' Wednesday Night Parlay

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K. Gibson o4.5 hits allowed / B. Bello o1.5 walks / S. Gray o4.5 K @ +319
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