$FML Best Bets - 7/23

The Detroit Tigers have the 5th highest K rate vs. Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) this year. 7 of their 9 projected starters tonight have strikeout rates that exceeds league average.

In two career matchups vs. them, Joe Ryan struck out 5 and 9 Tigers. His strikeout prop line for Round 3 is over/under 4.5. If you prefer betting 'Overs' like me, that's a great number to get vs. Detroit. 7 of the last 9 RHPs they faced finished with 5+ Ks.

Ryan's coming off back-to-back Unders, but they were much tougher matchups vs. the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox. Even after those misses, this prop line has a 50% hit rate this season (7 of 14).

For my official play -- I'm buying the dip and backing Ryan to finish over 4.5 Ks at -117 odds available at time of writing at Barstool Sportsbook. If you're feeling bold, you could consider laddering up to 6+ or 7+ Ks at FanDuel.

The Miami Marlins are the #1 strikeout team vs. Left-Handed Pitchers (LHP) this season. 14 out of 19 (73.7%) LHPs they faced finished with 5+ Ks.

Tonight, they'll be tested again in a tough matchup vs. the Pirates' best LHP Jose Quintana. He's been their Ace this year and is rumoured to be available in the trade market. With the trade deadline looming, there's a real chance that tonight will be the last time we see him in a Pirates uniform. With that in mind, I absolutely love Quintana to cover this 4.5 line at home tonight.

He's coming off back-to-back Unders, but one of them was in Colorado where the 'Coors Effect' dampens K rates. Before those 2 starts, he covered this 4.5 line in 4 straight games, including a 7 K performance vs. a much tougher New York Yankees lineup. And you're telling me we only need 5+ tonight vs. the Marlins?! Say less and take my money.

For my official play -- I'm buying the Quintana trade deadline narrative and backing him to finish over 4.5 Ks at -105 odds available at time of writing (MGM). If you're feeling bold, you could consider laddering up to 6+ or 7+ Ks at FanDuel.