FML is looking at this Toronto Ace for Monday night's MLB action - check it out below!
$FML's MLB Best Bet for Monday Night - 4/17
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
Kevin Gausman over 6.5 K’s (+105)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Pitcher props have been a real thorn in my ass so far, but the season’s still young and I love this spot!
Gausman burst into the Cy Young conversation early last year before injuries derailed it. Now he’s back in peak form and gets a decent matchup tonight (by his standards):
- His 31.6% strikeout rate so far ranks Top 14% of MLB thanks to an elite, 43% chase rate (Top 2%)
- Meanwhile — Astros striking out 24.2% vs. RHP (10th most) with a 28.2% chase rate (12th highest)
- Past history heavily favors Gausman (see table) who’s posted a 48.3% career strikeout rate vs. current Houston roster (excluding Altuve, IL)
- At least 3 Astros starters have never faced him (early advantage Gausman)
- Home/road splits also support this pick as the 6.5 line is 12-5 (71%) to the Over away from home since last year
The key unknown at this point relates to Umpire assignment; however, I’m willing to bet it won’t matter much given Gausman’s elite swing & miss ability + chase rate.
I risked a full unit at +105 (MGM) and would play down to -120!
$FML's Best Bet
KEVIN GAUSMAN OVER 6.5 K’S @ +105
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