$FML's MLB Best Bet for Monday Night - 4/17

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros

Pitcher props have been a real thorn in my ass so far, but the season’s still young and I love this spot!

Gausman burst into the Cy Young conversation early last year before injuries derailed it. Now he’s back in peak form and gets a decent matchup tonight (by his standards):

• His 31.6% strikeout rate so far ranks Top 14% of MLB thanks to an elite, 43% chase rate (Top 2%)
• Meanwhile — Astros striking out 24.2% vs. RHP (10th most) with a 28.2% chase rate (12th highest)
• Past history heavily favors Gausman (see table) who’s posted a 48.3% career strikeout rate vs. current Houston roster (excluding Altuve, IL)
• At least 3 Astros starters have never faced him (early advantage Gausman)
• Home/road splits also support this pick as the 6.5 line is 12-5 (71%) to the Over away from home since last year

The key unknown at this point relates to Umpire assignment; however, I’m willing to bet it won’t matter much given Gausman’s elite swing & miss ability + chase rate.

I risked a full unit at +105 (MGM) and would play down to -120!