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John Bollman's Bet Of The Day - 7/12

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 2 of this four-game series in Miami. The Pirates won Game 1 of this series handily. They were leading the whole game, and they were able to get the save without their top two relievers in Will Crowe or David Bednar. They were able to get three runs off Trevor Rogers early and that was really all they needed. Mitch Keller pitched an absolute gem. However, I don’t think that will be happening again today. Chris Stratton should be opening today in front of either a primary reliever or to begin a bullpen game. I don’t think it matters which route they go though. The Pirates have the second worst bullpen ERA in the past 30 days. If they go with a bulk reliever, my guess is they go with Bryse Wilson on normal rest. He has been pitching better lately, but that also makes me think that they’d just start him if he were going to make an appearance. Roansy Contreras is also on normal rest for the Pirates, but he would definitely start the game if he were to make an appearance. So that being said, I think this will end up being a bullpen game.

Daniel Castano will start for the Marlins, and he has been hit or miss this season, but he has pitched very well when he is on. It also seems like he is fine with the worse lineups in the league, and the Pirates are the fourth worst team in the league in wOBA against lefties. The Marlins should also have their top two relievers in Tanner Scott and Anthony Bass available again after each of them had pitched three straight games before yesterday’s day off. The Marlins are hot right now, they are 13-9 in their last 22 games. The Pirates are 12-11 in that same span, but they are much worse on the road at 5-7. Brian Reynolds was also added to the IL yesterday, so the Pirates are missing some firepower.

The Marlins are 41-44 on the season but they are above .500 at 20-18 at home. The Pirates are just 37-50 overall but they are much worse on the road at 17-27 on the season. I think the Marlins were sleepwalking a bit in their game yesterday, but I like them to bounce back at home tonight.

Marlins ML | -150 vs. Pirates

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