The Seattle Mariners take on the San Diego Padres in a late season inter-league matchup between two Wild Card teams looking to make the playoffs. The Mariners have been playing very good baseball for a long time now while the Padres have kind of been going back and forth. The Mariners are 17-8 in the last 30 days and that includes 7-5 at home while the Padres are just 13-12 in their last 30 days. The Padres have been slightly better on the road though at 8-5 in the last 30 days.
Yu Darvish takes on Logan Gilbert in this starting pitching matchup, Gilbert has actually been a lot better on the road this season though. He is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA at home this season but he is 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA on the road. Yu Darvish is the opposite, he is much worse on the road going 6-5 with a 4.09 ERA. Logan Gilbert hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts pitching six innings in both of them. He has really pitched well in each of his last five starts, it was just his two starts before that where he was blown up that skew his numbers. Logan Gilbert also allowed just one earned run in 5.1 innings pitched against the Padres earlier this season. Yu Darvish has been solid lately and he has been getting very deep in games. He has made it at least six innings in all but two of his starts this season, so don’t expect the Padres to use much bullpen.
The Padres have the 17th ranked bullpen in the last 30 days so they haven’t been overly impressive. Josh Hader has been pitching much better recently though. The Mariners bullpen has been dominant since the trade deadline though, and they are ranked 6th in the league in the last 30 days.
Both these teams had yesterday off so both teams should have all their bullpen options available. The Mariners are also ranked 11th in the league in wOBA against righties in the last 30 days, while the Padres are ranked 22nd in the league in wOBA against righties.
So, the starting pitching matchup is probably a wash, but the Mariners have been hitting better than the Padres lately and pitching better out of the bullpen, so I have to go with the Mariners at home.