John Bollman's Bet of the Day - 9/16

The Cleveland Guardians take on the Minnesota Twins in a critical AL Central battle between two of the top three teams all looking for the AL Central title. The Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, and Chicago White Sox are all within four games of the AL Central lead currently. However, only one of them will make the playoffs considering the three AL Wild Card teams have a massive lead over these three teams in the American League. The Twins are currently four games back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead at 72-70 and coming off a sweep of the Royals at home. However, they travel on the road for this game where they are much worse on the season and much worse lately. The Twins are 29-38 on the road this season and they are 2-8 on the road in their last 30 days. The Guardians have also dominated this series history lately. The Guardians are 9-5 against the Twins this season and that includes five straight wins by the Guardians. They have only played five games in Cleveland so far this season, but the Guardians have won three of those five games.

Triston McKenzie is getting the start for the Guardians, and he has been great overall this season going 10-11 with a 3.05 ERA. He has been much better at home as well going 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA. He faced the Twins in his last turn around the rotation and pitched seven scoreless innings against them in Minnesota. He actually really struggled in his two previous starts against the Twins before that but pitched a quality start against them in his start before that. He also hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start in his last eight starts. Bailey Ober is coming off the IL for the Twins to make his first start since June 1st . I highly doubt he goes deep in this game. The Twins have a good bullpen behind him ranked 11th in the league in the last 30 days, but they tend to struggle when they are stretched out like they could be today. The Guardians also have the best bullpen in the league in the last 30 days behind him, and they are rested. Luis Arraez also left the game early two days ago for the Twins and wasn’t in the starting lineup yesterday, so he could be out again. The Twins are already without Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton.

I like the Guardians at home to stay hot.